{"id":11436,"date":"2022-06-22T11:38:44","date_gmt":"2022-06-22T08:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-international-reserves-likely-to-shrink\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-international-reserves-likely-to-shrink","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11436\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus\u2019 international reserves likely to shrink"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Volha Tama\u0161e\u016dskaja<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n Although Belarus\u2019 international reserves have decreased, the country\u2019s monetary system remains quite resilient. However, observers note that the central bank should be concerned about risks.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Decline in May<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t International reserves fell by 12.5 percent in the first five months to $7.4 billion, including by $352 (4.5 percent) in May. Na\u0161y Hro\u0161y, a project associated with the SYMPA school of public administration, described the decline as significant.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The government spent $135 servicing Belarus\u2019 debt last month.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t May\u2019s decline is not indicative of a consistent trend, said Ka\u0441iaryna Barnukova, of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center. \u201cSharper changes are possible in June, when sanctions become fully effective and have a full effect on foreign trade,\u201d she told The Viewer.\n<\/p>\n

Belarus needs foreign cash<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Belarus\u2019 imports have decreased amid international sanctions. Although the country does not need as much foreign cash as before to buy goods abroad, it still pays for commodities in foreign currencies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk buys natural gas from Russia with Russian rubles and uses rubles or US dollars to pay for Russian oil. \u201cOur country buys more goods in Russia than it sells to Russia, so it needs a lot of foreign cash for payments,\u201d Barnukova said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus also has to repay its debts denominated in foreign currencies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cOne can hardly expect China to accept payments in [Belarusian] rubels or renegotiate debts. You need US dollars to settle obligations to this country,\u201d she noted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus is due to pay considerable amounts to Eurobond holders early next year. \u201cBelarus, of course, can say that it cannot settle the debt in the foreign currency because of sanctions, but this would mean a default and have far-reaching consequences\u201d such as restricted access to or high cost of international funding, Barnukova said.\n<\/p>\n

Foreign trade may fall<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t A country\u2019s minimum international reserve requirements are usually estimated based on how much foreign cash it needs to pay for imports for six months or at least for three months. International reserves are used to cushion shocks when the country loses a market.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cFor instance, Belarus has stopped receiving foreign currency revenue from exports to Ukraine. Now it needs to hold out and continue importing goods until it finds an opportunity to sell more goods in other markets,\u201d Barnukova said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t International reserves may also be used to prop up the national currency.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2020, Belarusians withdrew their rubel savings from banks on a mass scale after the start of the pandemic and at the peak of the political crisis in August and September.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The government uses reserves to stabilize the exchange market under such circumstances.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Last year, booming exports enabled the central bank to replenish reserves although the government spent foreign cash heavily to settle its debt. This year, Belarus lost the Ukrainian market and faces an embargo on potash exports.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cIf the country loses export flows due to sanctions, it will have to spend reserves to repay its debt and prop up the national currency, so the reserves can decline steeply,\u201d Barnukova said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Volha Tama\u0161e\u016dskaja * Reproduction is allowed Although Belarus\u2019 international reserves have decreased, the country\u2019s monetary system remains quite resilient. However, observers note that the central bank should be concerned about risks. Decline in May International reserves fell by 12.5 percent in the first five months to $7.4 billion, including by $352 (4.5 percent) in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11436","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus\u2019 international reserves likely to shrink | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Volha Tama\u0161e\u016dskaja * Reproduction is allowed Although Belarus\u2019 international reserves have decreased, the country\u2019s monetary system remains quite\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11436\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus\u2019 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