{"id":11434,"date":"2022-06-20T11:40:36","date_gmt":"2022-06-20T08:40:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusians-yet-to-fight-for-right-to-determine-future\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusians-yet-to-fight-for-right-to-determine-future","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11434\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusians yet to fight for right to determine future"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine\u2019s accession to the European Union (EU) would be a point of no-return to the Russian world, whereas Belarus has yet to fight for its right to determine its future.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The European Commission last week recommended EU candidacy for Ukraine and Moldova. The move is likely to inspire Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy activists to continue struggle for change.\n<\/p>\n

Huge gap between society and ruling class<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Ukraine is going through very difficult times right now. It has reportedly suffered heavy losses as it tries to slow Russia\u2019s offensive in Donbas. If faces huge social and economic problems. Under such circumstances, its accession to the EU seems to be out of the question.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The EU, for its part, suspended expansion after taking new members on board in 2004-2007. After that wave, it had to deal with Greece\u2019s sovereign debt crisis, Brexit and challenges from Hungary and Poland. Observers noted at the time that the idea of European integration was in trouble.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Now, the European Commission has made a landmark decision to recommend candidacy for Ukraine and Moldova to display its determination to support Ukraine and resist Russian expansion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a catalyst of processes that can fundamentally change Eastern and Central Europe.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Candidacy gives Ukraine a lot in terms of economic support from the EU. This is the beginning of a long and difficult reform process to meet EU standards.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But most importantly, the Ukrainians have new incentives to continue their fierce resistance to the Russian invasion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine\u2019s integration in the EU is a geopolitical U-turn to the West and may be a point of no-return to the Russian world. This is a fundamental choice in favor of European values. Russia had clashed with Ukraine in an attempt to reverse its geopolitical and civilization shift.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In November 2013, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich refused to sign an association agreement with the EU under pressure from Moscow in a move that triggered the Maidan revolution. Several months later Russia seized Crimea and backed pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The conflict has always revolved around Ukraine\u2019s geopolitical choice.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine is a major country in Eastern Europe. Before Russia\u2019s most recent invasion, the Belarus\u2019 authoritarian leader stressed the need to force Ukraine \u201cinto the fold of our true faith\u201c and \u201cSlavdom.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Russia did not attack Ukraine, the latter would have little chance of joining the EU in the foreseeable future. The country is too big and too problematic from the bloc\u2019s viewpoint. The Russian invasion gave rise to a wave of solidarity with Ukraine and accelerated its European integration. The Kremlin achieved the opposite to what it had intended to achieve.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As for Belarus, it made a major attempt to embark on the path toward democracy in 2020 but failed for many reasons, one of them being divergent interests of the public and elite. The gap has widened and is huge at the moment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus has yet to make its fundamental choice. To be able to do so, the Belarusians need to win back the right to elect their government.\n<\/p>\n

Will Belarus step into the fray?<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t In the last couple of days, many observers have expressed concern that Belarus may attack Ukraine to facilitate the Russian onslaught.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk has been conducting military drills involving its commando units close to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, as well as exercises to put troops and reservists on a war footing and on high alert. The Belarusian leader has ordered the establishment of the Southern Operational Command and volunteer corps. Troops have been drawing equipment from warehouses, while military enlistment offices have been updating lists of reserve personnel subject to mobilization. In addition, Russia keeps its Iskander, Tochka U and S-300 missiles in southern Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials and state propaganda continue to demonize Ukraine, accusing it of making plans to attack Belarus. The narrative can be used as a pretext to attack Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Alaksandr Valfovi\u010d, secretary of the Security Council, last month alleged that Ukrainian subversive groups had illegally crossed the border into Belarus. Earlier this month, the Belarusian defense ministry said that Ukrainian drones violated the border 17 times.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In a separate development, investigators accused Mika\u0142aj A\u016dtuchovi\u010d, an outspoken critic of the government, of conspiracy with Ukrainian secret services to plot an attack on the Belarusian ruler\u2019s plane.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka last week accused Poland of seeking to capture western Ukraine, and promised a response. He said he feared that Poland would surround Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cWe would have to react here, because we cannot allow the Poles to completely encircle us. It is a dangerous option. Like I said, the Ukrainians will eventually ask us and the Russians to help them maintain [territorial] integrity,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He has spun his story that a possible attack on Ukraine would be a way to defend Belarus from Poland\u2019s attempt to encircle it. \u201cIf they strike Mazyr, we will strike Kyiv without entering Ukraine,\u201d he warned.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, \u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear that he was no longer confident that Russia can win the war. \u201cNobody knows. I stress nobody knows how it will end,\u201d he said in Babrujsk on June 17\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The uncertainty may keep Minsk from stepping into the fray. Its military drills appear to be an attempt to mislead and distract Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Ukraine\u2019s accession to the European Union (EU) would be a point of no-return to the Russian world, whereas Belarus has yet to fight for its right to determine its future. The European Commission last week recommended EU candidacy for Ukraine and Moldova. The move is likely to inspire Belarus\u2019 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11434","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarusians yet to fight for right to determine future | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Ukraine\u2019s accession to the European Union (EU) would be a point of no-return to the Russian world, whereas\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11434\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarusians yet to fight for right to determine future | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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