{"id":11426,"date":"2022-06-04T17:36:42","date_gmt":"2022-06-04T14:36:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/economic-slowdown-high-inflation-signs-of-imminent-crisis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"economic-slowdown-high-inflation-signs-of-imminent-crisis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11426\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic slowdown, high inflation \u2013 signs of imminent crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Volha Tama\u0161e\u016dskaja<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the West\u2019s response have created panic among Belarusian economic entities in early spring. But fears subsided quite soon. Households and businesses were optimistic in April, found a survey conducted by the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Rubel\u2019s recovery assuaged concerns<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Russian assault and an economic slowdown have not affected Belarusians considerably, BEROC said. More respondents (35 percent, a rise of seven percentage points) than in the previous survey noted a decrease in income unadjusted for inflation and rubel depreciation. Only four percent said they lost jobs in the last two weeks.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t BEROC found a six prevent rise in optimism about Belarus\u2019 macroeconomic prospects. Optimism appears to be linked to the rubel\u2019s recovery after sharp depreciation in early March. The Belarusian currency rose to 2.67 against the euro in early June from 3.3 in early March. Belarusians perceive the currency\u2019s strength as a key indicator of a healthy economy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, it has begun to contract, said D\u017amitryj Kruk of BEROC. \u201cThis is just the beginning of a crisis,\u201d said Le\u016d Lvo\u016dski, another BEROC expert.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus\u2019 gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 3.3 percent in March. Preliminary estimates suggest that it might have decreased by at least 6.5 percent in April.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>IT sector may not rescue economy from crisis<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The government reported a decline of 20 percent in retail trade, of 15-16 percent in construction and transportation services and of 10 percent in manufacturing in April. Authorities registered a reduction in the number of small businesses.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Still, considerable growth, of 15 percent was reported in IT services. \u201cIt could be even higher if IT professionals did not flee the country in big numbers\u201d over risks associated with the Russian-Ukrainian war, Lvo\u016dski said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The IT sector boom cannot offset the decline in other sectors, he added.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Many Belarusians ready to take pay cuts<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Inflation is another sign of the nation\u2019s poor economic health.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Annual inflation surpassed 16 percent in April. That was the highest annual rate under the current leadership of the National Bank of Belarus, Lvo\u016dski said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The unemployment rate remained low though. \u201cPopulation ageing makes it possible for employers to avoid job cuts. They just don\u2019t hire to replace those who retire,\u201d Kruk told The Viewer.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Many Belarusians prefer to take pay cuts to hold on to their jobs. Unemployment benefits are too low for people to make a living, while bureaucratic procedures to obtain them are quite complicated. In addition, Belarusians face penalties for being unemployed.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Some workers are ready to take a 50-percent pay cut to avoid unemployment. \u201cA surge in official unemployment is unlikely,\u201d Lvo\u016dski said. \u201cReal and nominal pay may fall; more employees will be sent on unpaid leaves or will work reduced hours.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIf the government manages to redirect exports to keep foreign currency revenue flowing, it would mitigate the impact. A severe crisis, a plunge and a mitigated impact and a gradual decrease are the two limits of the range. There are many outcomes between them in terms of depth, intensity and industries to be affected,\u201d Kruk said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Volha Tama\u0161e\u016dskaja * Reproduction is allowed Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the West\u2019s response have created panic among Belarusian economic entities in early spring. But fears subsided quite soon. Households and businesses were optimistic in April, found a survey conducted by the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC). Rubel\u2019s recovery assuaged concerns The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11426","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Economic slowdown, high inflation \u2013 signs of imminent crisis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Volha Tama\u0161e\u016dskaja * Reproduction is allowed Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the West\u2019s response have created panic among Belarusian economic entities\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11426\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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