{"id":11423,"date":"2022-06-01T09:10:09","date_gmt":"2022-06-01T06:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-army-unlikely-to-enter-war-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-army-unlikely-to-enter-war-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11423\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian army unlikely to enter war \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alak\u015bej Stry\u017eevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Aliaksandr Va\u013afovi\u010d, state secretary of Belarus\u2019 Security Council, said last week that Ukrainian subversive and reconnaissance groups had entered Belarus illegally but did not provide any proof of that. A few days later, the Belarusian Armed Forces launched surprise drills that fanned fears that Belarus might attack Ukraine.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The drills included helicopter and plane sorties, vehicles negotiating the River Muchaviec and close quarters combat training.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported the deployment of Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems to the Luni\u0144ec district, Brest region, warning of a missile threat.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Also last week, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka ordered the establishment of the Southern Operational Command \u201cto work quickly, on the go to defend these [Belarusian-Ukrainian] boundaries.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Ty\u0161kievi\u010d: Not enough troops to attack Ukraine<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has no more 9,000 troops along its shared border with Ukraine, not enough to pose a real threat, Ihar Ty\u0161kievi\u010d, of the Institute of the Future think tank, told <span>The Viewer<\/span>.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIn theory, troops can launch a short-term incursion into Ukraine, if \u0141uka\u0161enka is unable to resist [Vladimir] Putin [alleged attempt to drag Belarus into the war]. But the question is what will happen to that grouping. It can hardly perform any tactical tasks, except for distracting Ukrainian forces. But Belarus would face much graver consequences,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He noted that Ukraine has up to 7,000 territorial defense personnel in the Volyn region alone. In addition, it has regular forces and a special operation unit stationed in Zhytomyr.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The threat of missile strikes from Belarus remains high, Ty\u0161kievi\u010d said, noting that Russia\u2019s Iskander missile systems can attack the Volyn and Lviv regions\u2019 infrastructure used for transporting weapons supplied by the West.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk will continue to distance itself from the Russian invasion and support Moscow at the same time, he noted and added that \u0141uka\u0161enka stands to lose regardless of the outcome of the war.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Parotnika\u016d: No signs of Moscow pushing Minsk to send troops to Ukraine<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t There are no signs to indicate that Moscow puts pressure on Minsk to send troops to Ukraine, said Andrej Parotnika\u016d, of <span>Belarus Security Blog<\/span>.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe Kremlin realistically assesses the moral and technical condition of the Belarusian army. If it entered the war, Russia would have to bring some of its troops back to Belarus to defend it,\u201d he told <span>The Viewer<\/span>.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He noted that propaganda officers and officials had met with soldiers at military bases in March and April to promote Belarus\u2019 peaceful policy. Officials reassured draftees\u2019 parents that Minsk did not plan to send troops to Ukraine, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Parotnika\u016d added that \u0141uka\u0161enka realizes that Russia is not winning, the West is united and Belarus does not stand to benefit from the conflict.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cBelarus has not received enough economic assistance to mitigate Western sanctions. Neither has it received enough military-technical assistance,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He noted that the recent drills were routine, while the establishment of the Southern Operational Command \u201cis an old plan that has been lobbied by military officials because it creates additional positions for generals and colonels.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But he added that the decision makes practical sense. \u201cThere is an understanding that the confrontation will drag on and may spill over into a regional war that Belarus may not be able to avoid. Besides, Belarusian authorities are afraid that Kyiv can retaliate. After the war, the Ukrainian army will have about a million of armed personnel possibly equipped with Western equipment, while Belarus will have what it has now.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alak\u015bej Stry\u017eevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Aliaksandr Va\u013afovi\u010d, state secretary of Belarus\u2019 Security Council, said last week that Ukrainian subversive and reconnaissance groups had entered Belarus illegally but did not provide any proof of that. A few days later, the Belarusian Armed Forces launched surprise drills that fanned fears that Belarus might attack Ukraine. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11423","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarusian army unlikely to enter war \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alak\u015bej Stry\u017eevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Aliaksandr Va\u013afovi\u010d, state secretary of Belarus\u2019 Security Council, said last week that Ukrainian subversive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11423\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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