{"id":11408,"date":"2022-05-05T17:56:48","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T14:56:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusians-to-use-any-window-of-opportunity-for-democratic-change-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusians-to-use-any-window-of-opportunity-for-democratic-change-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change &#8211; analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reprinting prohibited\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In 1992, he blocked a proposal by the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) to hold an early parliamentary election that could have increased pro-democracy representation in the parliament. Some critics say that Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka might be defeated in the 1994 presidential election if it were not for democratic vote splitting between \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d and BPF leader Zianon Pazniak.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Belarus could hardly have followed Baltic countries\u2019 path<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t If \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d and other pro-democracy leaders were more resolute and united, could Belarus follow the path of the Baltic countries to push back on Moscow\u2019s influence and join the European Union and NATO?\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe Baltic countries\u2019 experience is not relevant for us [Belarus],\u201d Juryj Drakachrust, a political analyst, told The Viewer. \u201cWe are more similar to Ukraine and Moldova. Belarus could take that path.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A sense of national identity was much stronger in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, while in Belarus it was weakened by a long period of Russification. Belarus\u2019 nationalists and pro-democracy forces failed in their attempts to copy the Baltic nations in the late 1980s and early 1990s. &nbsp;&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka\u2019s win was not incidental<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus could take the Ukrainian path to build a less authoritarian system than under Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka, said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a Belarusian political scientist, author of a book about Belarus\u2019 first president.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It was not a mere coincidence that Luka\u0161enka came to power, he told The Viewer.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka gained advantage in the race by skillfully manipulating Belarusians\u2019 nostalgia for the Soviet Union with its low prices and guaranteed employment.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The backslide to some form of authoritarianism was unavoidable in the 1990s, Drakachrust said, noting that Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia experienced the same. But Belarus could have avoided the establishment of \u201csuch a monstrous\u201d authoritarian state, he added.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>People outgrew authoritarian leader<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusians have evolved since the 1990s and \u201cmatured for building a democratic state with European values,\u201d Karbalievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Society got used to independence, something that had been abnormal in the 1990s, Drakachrust said. Moreover, the new generation \u201cknows nothing but independence,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although Luka\u0161enka continues to operate a centrally planned economy, the private sector\u2019s proportion has risen from single digits in 1994 to more than half of the country\u2019s gross domestic product, he noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Polls show that Belarusians have become less paternalistic and more supportive of a market economy and economic reform.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Ferocious regime reliant on Moscow<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Minsk made an attempt to improve ties with the West between 2015 and 2019.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka distanced himself from the Kremlin\u2019s aggressive policy after the annexation of Crimea. Minsk released political prisoners and did not interfere with efforts by nonprofits and enthusiasts to cultivate a sense of national identity and build a genuine civil society.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The nation\u2019s evolution clearly outpaced its ruler with his archaic views. A peaceful uprising followed in 2020 but it was ruthlessly suppressed by the regime. Luka\u0161enka was on the verge of losing power, so he appealed to the Kremlin for help.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Later, Moscow took advantage of his dependence on Russia to deploy Russian troops to Belarus for an assault on Ukraine. The Belarusian regime became a co-aggressor. Luka\u0161enka is currently perceived as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian ruler would like to bargain with the West, but it set the bar high for a dialogue. Luka\u0161enka does not have courage to demand that Russia withdraw its troops from Belarus. He is reluctant to free political prisoners for fear of a new cycle of unrest.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He sees permanent intimidation, persecution, victimization and totalitarianism as the last chance to prolong his tenure.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>War in Ukraine to accelerate change<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t But the Belarusians may not have to wait for long before his regime collapses. \u201cThe war in Ukraine has accelerated things,\u201d Karbalievi\u010d said, noting that changes may take place sooner than many people are expecting.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Drakachrust stressed that a big change is likely in Russia. \u201cI would not bet much on its disintegration, but a change of government paradigm is possible.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Neither Putin nor Luka\u0161enka will last forever. If power in Belarus is handed to someone else, \u201cit will open up some opportunities for society, but it will not necessarily open the floodgate.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusians are looking for any window of opportunity, Karbalievi\u010d noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t And therefore, efforts by \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d and other democratic politicians have born and are likely to bear more fruit.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In 1992, he blocked a proposal by the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) to hold an early parliamentary election that could have increased pro-democracy representation in the parliament. Some critics say that Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka might [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11408","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change - analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change - analysis | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\"},\"headline\":\"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change &#8211; analysis\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-05-05T14:56:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\"},\"wordCount\":762,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\",\"name\":\"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change - analysis | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-05-05T14:56:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"description\":\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change &#8211; analysis\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Pozirk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change - analysis | Pozirk","description":"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change - analysis | Pozirk","og_description":"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In","og_url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/","og_site_name":"Pozirk","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","article_modified_time":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@Pozirk_online","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/"},"headline":"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change &#8211; analysis","datePublished":"2022-05-05T14:56:48+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/"},"wordCount":762,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/","name":"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change - analysis | Pozirk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-05-05T14:56:48+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","description":"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN * Reprinting prohibited Critics say that Stanisla\u016d \u0160u\u0161kievi\u010d lacked resolve as speaker of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet. In","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11408\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Belarusians to use any window of opportunity for democratic change &#8211; analysis"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","name":"Pozirk","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization","name":"Pozirk","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Pozirk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads\/11408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/longreads"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/75"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"rubric","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rubric?post=11408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}