{"id":11407,"date":"2022-05-03T11:38:46","date_gmt":"2022-05-03T08:38:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenkas-support-for-russian-invasion-meets-with-mixed-public-response\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenkas-support-for-russian-invasion-meets-with-mixed-public-response","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11407\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka\u2019s support for Russian invasion meets with mixed public response"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reprinting prohibited\n<\/p>\n

\n Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has not found deep and enthusiastic support for his decision to back Russia in its assault on Ukraine. The Belarusian government has moved to introduce harsher punishment for attempted acts of terror in response to attacks on railroad infrastructure by opponents of the Russian invasion.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka fails to capitalize on pro-Russian sentiment<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Back in 2014, two thirds of Belarusians supported the annexation of Crimea by Russia, according to opinion polls. Despite the pro-Russian sentiment, Minsk distanced itself from Moscow be taking a relatively neutral position on Ukraine. However, public support for the annexation gave Moscow additional tools of influence on Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The political climate in the country turned sharply against Luka\u0161enka in 2020 amid public discontent with alleged election fraud and massive protests against police brutality and violence in the wake of the 2020 presidential election. Observers concluded at the time that he might not be able to turn things around until the end of his rule.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine was a black swan event for the Belarusian government. Minsk has been targeted by Western economic sanctions as a co-aggressor and has been struggling to cope with anti-war sentiment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Heavily reliant on Moscow for his political survival, Luka\u0161enka might not have had another option but to provide active political support for the Kremlin. He also hoped to capitalize on pro-Russian sentiment, expecting support for the Russian invasion to be as high as public approval of the annexation of Crimea. He hoped to expand his base beyond his loyal security personnel, bolster his legitimacy and turn around the opposition tide.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A recent poll conducted by Belarusian social scientist Andrej Vardamadski suggests that pro-Russian sentiment fell short of his expectations. Although only 25 percent of Belarusians blamed Russia for the war, while 51 percent blamed Ukraine and the West, the latter proportion is much lower than two-thirds recorded in 2014.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, half of Belarusians did not support Russia\u2019s actions, while 43 percent sided with Russia. Nearly 62 percent disapproved of Russia\u2019s use of Belarusian territory for attacks on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As hostilities drag on, numbers are unlikely to change in favor of the Belarusian leader.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, the poll showed considerable pro-Russian sentiment among the opponents. Some Belarusians who stood up against the regime in 2020 are actually hostile to democratic values.\n<\/p>\n

Authorities rewrite laws to stifle dissent<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t On April 19, Luka\u0161enka urged the security brass to step up the crackdown on his political opponents.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A week later, the lower house of the Belarusian National Assembly passed a bill that would introduce capital punishment for attempted acts of terrorism. The draft legislation has yet to be approved by the upper house and signed into law by Luka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Since the authorities associate terrorism with the political opposition, the legislation would give then new opportunities for abuse.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Those charged with terrorism-related offenses include Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja, a former presidential candidate who fled Belarus in 2020, and Paviel Latu\u0161ka, a former diplomat and the head of the National Anti-crisis Management. Mikalaj A\u016dtuchovi\u010d, an outspoken critic of Luka\u0161enka, is to go on trial on terrorism-related charges on May 16.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In a recent development, at least 11 people were arrested and charged with terrorism over attacks on railroad signaling equipment carried out in protest against Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. The attacks on railroad infrastructure dubbed \u201cthe rail war\u201d were aimed at slowing down the movement of Russian equipment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The lower house also passed legislation that would make it easier for internal troops to use firearms against protesters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials are clearly guided by the instinct of self-preservation. Although the government has managed to reduce mass protests to a simmer, dissatisfaction with its repressive policy runs deep.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Maryna Lian\u010de\u016dskaja, a member of the House of Representatives\u2019 national security committee, said that the counterterrorism bill was introduced in response to \u201ca considerable number of terrorist attempts to destroy critically important infrastructure.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, some opponents of the government believe that they could have toppled the regime if protesters acted more radically in 2020. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t If tightening screws is the only method of communication between the government and public, the country has no future. Building a North Korea in the center of Europe means depriving Belarus of any prospects.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d * Reprinting prohibited Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has not found deep and enthusiastic support for his decision to back Russia in its assault on Ukraine. The Belarusian government has moved to introduce harsher punishment for attempted acts of terror in response to attacks on railroad infrastructure by opponents of the Russian invasion. Luka\u0161enka fails […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11407","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka\u2019s support for Russian invasion meets with mixed public response | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d * Reprinting prohibited Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has not found deep and enthusiastic support for his decision to back Russia in its\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11407\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Luka\u0161enka\u2019s support for Russian invasion meets with mixed public response | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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