{"id":11397,"date":"2022-04-17T11:17:14","date_gmt":"2022-04-17T08:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-regime-searching-for-new-survival-strategy\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-regime-searching-for-new-survival-strategy","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11397\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian regime searching for new survival strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reprinting prohibited\n<\/p>\n

\n The Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka regime is failing in its effort to survive by cementing a close alliance with Vladimir Putin. Minsk is frantically searching for a new strategy.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian foreign minister has urged the EU to engage with Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Minsk hoped for Russia\u2019s quick victory in Ukraine<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka enthusiastically supported Moscow in its geopolitical conflict with the West and Ukraine because the Kremlin\u2019s policy was completely in harmony with his interests and values.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He hoped that Russian forces would capture Kyiv in a matter of days. \u201cUkraine will never go to war with us; the war will last maximum three to four days. Nobody will resist us there,\u201d he said in an interview with Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyev a few days before Russia invaded Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He was aware of high costs of Belarus\u2019 involvement in Russia\u2019s military campaign, but was hoping that Moscow will offer him generous economic subsidies and political benefits after its quick victory.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In particular, he hoped that Ukraine\u2019s pro-Moscow regime would open the country\u2019s sea ports for transshipments of petroleum products and potash fertilizers that Minsk could no longer export through Baltic ports. In addition, he hoped that Ukraine would join the Russian world composed of Russia and Belarus\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow and Minsk underestimated the West\u2019s possible response. They probably expected a reaction similar to Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea in 2014.\n<\/p>\n

Miscalculation<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t But things went wrong for the start.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka was unable to talk Moscow out of keeping Russian troops in Belarus after a joint exercise. Russia attacked Ukraine from Belarusian territory.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It was a big surprise for the Russian and Belarusian leaders that Ukraine put up effective and successful resistance.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka discovered that the Russian army\u2019s combat worthiness was much lower than he expected. Now that Russia has been mired in a lasting bloody conflict, Minsk is looking for an opportunity to back out to save political face.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The extent of international isolation came as a big surprise to the aggressor. Eritrea, North Korea and Syria were the only countries to back Russia and Belarus in a UN vote. The Collective Security Treaty Organization allies abstained.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Contrary to expectations, the West, which many perceived as a hedonistic, decadent and consumeristic, demonstrated unity and power. Its asymmetric response \u2013 economic sanctions \u2013 proved effective. Belarus and Russia have been disconnected from the global economy and forced to seek self-sufficiency.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has finally realized that he is in trouble. Isolation and severe Western sanctions are taking a heavy toll with Russia being unable to recompense Minsk\u2019s economic losses. There are clear signs of disarray among officials. The foreign minister in early April decried the lack of support from post-Soviet states for Russia and Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t “Belarus and Russia have been left pretty much alone with those who are trying to impose their will on these states,\u201d he said on April 1 at a book launch party in Minsk.\n<\/p>\n

Minsk looking for way out<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka and his lieutenants do not have a strategy. Minsk has been making sporadic attempts to find its footing.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Its first goal is to dismount the tiger and not to be eaten. It is looking to distance itself from Russia\u2019s war without provoking an angry response from Vladimir Putin. Belarusian officials use every opportunity to deny that Belarus is involved in the hostilities. \u201cThis is not our war,\u201d Luka\u0161enka said on April 7.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But his recent meeting with Putin in Russia\u2019s Far East was just a mutual psychotherapy session.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka tried to console Putin distressed by Russia\u2019s failures in Ukraine. He described Russia as Belarus\u2019 big brother, and defended its assault on Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine had planned to attack first. He also claimed that the Bucha massacre was a special operation by British intelligence.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It should be noted that Luka\u0161enka often professes loyalty to Moscow to disguise his reluctance to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine. This is an attempt to dismount the tiger by hugging it tightly.\n<\/p>\n

Independence in foreign policy<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka does not want to be perceived as Russia\u2019s vassal and seeks more independence. A step in this direction was his declaration that Minsk would like to participate in possible top-level peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In a recent overture to the West, Makiej appealed to the European Union to engage in a dialogue and reconceive \u201cthe paradigm of future relations between Belarus and the EU.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk also approved visa-free entry for Latvian and Lithuanian nationals from April 15 to May 15.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Clearly, Minsk is trying to manipulate tensions between Russia and the West in its favor. It hopes that geopolitical considerations will eclipse values and that the West will forget about human rights abuses and Minsk\u2019s complicity in Russia\u2019s aggression in an attempt to draw Belarus closer to its camp away from Russia\u2019s sphere of influence.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is easy to predict Russia\u2019s response. Since Luka\u0161enka can hardly hold on to power without Moscow\u2019s support, the Kremlin is likely to block any attempts by Minsk to reach out to the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West does not trust Luka\u0161enka, especially after all earlier attempts to improve ties with Minsk failed. The European Union and United State will not negotiate with him before he makes major political concessions, in particular releases political prisoners and stops persecuting his critics.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, Makiej\u2019s appeal contrasts with Minsk\u2019s hostile policy and anti-Western rhetoric. It will not be taken seriously as long as Russian troops are present in Belarus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d * Reprinting prohibited The Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka regime is failing in its effort to survive by cementing a close alliance with Vladimir Putin. Minsk is frantically searching for a new strategy. The Belarusian foreign minister has urged the EU to engage with Belarus. Minsk hoped for Russia\u2019s quick victory in Ukraine Luka\u0161enka enthusiastically […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11397","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarusian regime searching for new survival strategy | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d * Reprinting prohibited The Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka regime is failing in its effort to survive by cementing a close alliance with\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11397\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarusian regime searching for new survival strategy | Pozirk\" 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