{"id":11389,"date":"2022-04-03T09:31:21","date_gmt":"2022-04-03T06:31:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/peace-talks-moved-to-turkey-away-from-toxic-lukasenka\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"peace-talks-moved-to-turkey-away-from-toxic-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11389\/","title":{"rendered":"Peace talks moved to Turkey away from toxic Luka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>As economic clouds darken over Belarus, the country\u2019s economic and financial hardships are starting to weigh on supporters of the regime, officials and regime-serving business. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has become a toxic figure even for regime stalwarts.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Turkey hosts peace talks, possible compromise<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Although Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka helped arrange two rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus, Minsk has not benefited a lot from its role as a host. The negotiations were moved to Turkey, which hosted a face-to-face meeting on March 29, which both Turkish and Ukrainian officials described as positive.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Kyiv and Moscow seem to be closer to a compromise. Moscow wants Ukraine to declare neutral status, which means that it will not press ahead with its application for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). That would be a major concession from Kyiv \u2013 Moscow declared preventing Ukraine from joining NATO as an objective of its military campaign. In any peace deal with Moscow, Kyiv seeks security guarantees from the UN Security Council and the world\u2019s leading powers.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin said it does not object to Ukraine\u2019s membership of the European Union (EU). That statement came as a big surprise because keeping Ukraine from the EU also seemed to be Moscow\u2019s objective.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow\u2019s attempt to prevent Ukraine from signing an association agreement with the EU triggered the Maidan revolution in Kyiv, which was followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia and a bloody rebellion in eastern Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin appears to be resigned to letting Ukraine move closer to the European camp, but it still opposes its possible membership on NATO. Without Ukraine, Russia will stop being an empire, said Zbignew Brzezinski, an American political scientist. That would be a big progress on Ukraine\u2019s path to real independence. But negotiations still continue.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After Luka\u0161enka allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus became much more reliant on Russia. Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja and some other leaders called on the international community to declare Belarus a country under temporary occupation.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Belarusian leader becomes more toxic<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus has been hit by sanctions imposed by a number of countries over its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The economy faces a challenge on a scale comparable with the chaos of the 1990s.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusians are only starting to feel the pain of the economic sanctions. The crisis may prompt the public to rally round the government because people have no one else to rely on in turbulent times. That is happening in Ukraine right now.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian crisis is of the government\u2019s own making. Every new package of sanctions comes in response to Minsk\u2019s outrageous acts.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The EU announced its fourth package to punish the Luka\u0161enka regime for forcing a Ryanair flight to land in Minsk in order to arrest opposition blogger Raman Pratasievi\u010d. The fifth package came amid the migrant crisis orchestrated by the Belarusian authorities. The latest package was in response to Belarus\u2019 complicity in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Attempts by Minsk to blame the West for sanctions are unlikely to find a receptive audience. Sooner or later people will start blaming the government for declining living standards. The Belarusian ruler\u2019s support base may shrink dramatically.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The authorities are currently trying to stem a banking crisis for fear that public discontent may boil over.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t During crises, officials compete aggressively for depleting economic resources. The competition may trigger bitter clashes among members of the elite.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In a recent development, police arrested senior executives of BelVEB, including its CEO Vasi\u013a Maciu\u0161e\u016dski, and Priorbank\u2019s Chairman of the Board Siarheij Kasciu\u010denka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Under Luka\u0161enka, who cast himself as a guarantor of stability for two decades, the country seems to be heading for a socioeconomic collapse. Not only his opponents, but also supporters, including business owners and officials, have taken economic, social and reputational damage.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka is now a toxic figure for all, except for a small group of his cronies and the security brass.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Exit restrictions lifted<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In a political decision driven by economic concerns, Belarus on April 3 lifted restrictions on travel from the country.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The government introduced the restrictions in December 2020 citing COVID-19 concerns, but its real purpose was to limit people-to-people contacts and westbound travel amid public protests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Now that protests have been suppressed and the economic clouds are darkening, the country\u2019s revenues largely depend the free movement of goods and passengers.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is unclear whether the move will make a big difference for the sagging economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d As economic clouds darken over Belarus, the country\u2019s economic and financial hardships are starting to weigh on supporters of the regime, officials and regime-serving business. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has become a toxic figure even for regime stalwarts. Turkey hosts peace talks, possible compromise Although Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka helped arrange two rounds of peace talks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11389","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Peace talks moved to Turkey away from toxic Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d As economic clouds darken over Belarus, the country\u2019s economic and financial hardships are starting to weigh on supporters of the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11389\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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