{"id":11382,"date":"2022-03-22T18:56:10","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T15:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-may-lose-sovereignty-statehood-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-may-lose-sovereignty-statehood-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11382\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus may lose sovereignty, statehood after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Andrej Jelisieje\u016d, of the EAST think tank<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>After Russia invaded Ukraine, Belarus has been turning into a BSSR-2, a reincarnation of the former Soviet republic without real sovereignty. Luka\u0161enka is unlikely to remain in charge of the country for a long time.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Many researchers have presented their vision of Ukraine\u2019s future after the war. Some said that Russia may install a puppet government in southeastern Ukraine or Moscow may achieve a Pyrrhic victory similar to Russia\u2019s alleged victory in a war with Finland in 1939.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The war has had great repercussions for Belarus\u2019 statehood and democracy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka sends troops to Ukraine, the move would have catastrophic consequences for the Belarusians and their country.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The West has moved to isolate Russia and Belarus, which it sees as a co-aggressor. Ukraine\u2019s relationship with Moscow is unlikely to recover from the fight in the next few decades regardless of the outcome of the war. The hostility has changed the attitude of many Belarusians to Russia. More people see it as a threat to their country\u2019s territorial integrity.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Russia\u2019s failure is not end of Luka\u0161enka regime<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t A failure of the Russian operation in Ukraine and a peace deal beneficial for Kyiv will not necessarily trigger democratic change in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Its democratization hinges on political change in Russia, which may not begin automatically even if it loses the war.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It may take quite long before Russia\u2019s weakened regime collapses. Russia\u2019s inability to conquer Ukraine does not mean that Moscow will let Belarus become a more independent and law-ruled state.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s democratization could open up opportunities for Belarus, but Moscow may not take that path even after Vladimir Putin falls.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is unclear how long Luka\u0161enka will be allowed to remain in power given Russia\u2019s heavy military presence in Belarus and the creeping annexation of Belarus to Russia through integration programs signed in November 2021. The Estonian and Latvian rulers were in a similar position as Luka\u0161enka for about a month before their arrest and deportation in June 1940.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Kremlin needs Belarus as an outpost<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Before Russia attacked Ukraine, Belarus\u2019 democratization did not seem completely impossible, whereas now the Kremlin badly needs Belarus as a staging ground for its attacks on Ukraine. If Luka\u0161enka does not make his country available for Russia\u2019s military, the Kremlin will simply replace him with someone else. &nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow can let him remain in charge of Belarus as long as he complies with its wishes and approves integration plans that are to be put into practice before 2025.\n<\/p>\n<p>The countries plan to<br \/>\nharmonize their laws in key areas to reach a point that is a stone\u2019s throw from<br \/>\nclassic annexation. Belarus may lose both real sovereignty and nominal statehood.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Andrej Jelisieje\u016d, of the EAST think tank After Russia invaded Ukraine, Belarus has been turning into a BSSR-2, a reincarnation of the former Soviet republic without real sovereignty. Luka\u0161enka is unlikely to remain in charge of the country for a long time. Many researchers have presented their vision of Ukraine\u2019s future after the war. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11382","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarus may lose sovereignty, statehood after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Andrej Jelisieje\u016d, of the EAST think tank After Russia invaded Ukraine, Belarus has been turning into a BSSR-2, a reincarnation of the former Soviet\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11382\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus may 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