{"id":11381,"date":"2022-03-21T10:03:08","date_gmt":"2022-03-21T07:03:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-troops-involvement-in-russias-aggression-possible-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-troops-involvement-in-russias-aggression-possible-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11381\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian troops\u2019 involvement in Russia\u2019s aggression possible \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The General Staff of Ukraine\u2019s Armed Forces said on March 20 that Belarusian troops were preparing to invade Ukraine\u2019s Volyn region within the next day or two, citing military intelligence. Observers note that this is quite possible.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka no longer in command<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader in the last few days accused Ukraine of firing missiles at Belarus and promised to respond to provocations. All Belarusian diplomats left Ukraine a few days ago.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThis is a very worrying sign,\u201d said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin is putting pressure on Luka\u0161enka to send Belarusian troops to join a Russian assault on Kyiv. Belarus\u2019 involvement is quite possible, said Arsien Sivicki, head of the Minsk-based Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka said that Belarusian troops will not be deployed to Ukraine, the probability that he will ignore Moscow\u2019s orders is very low, he told <span>The Viewer. <\/span>Sivicki expressed hope that the Belarusian leader will find a pretext to avoid sending troops to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Putin may be looking for Belarus\u2019 involvement<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin is preparing to storm Kyiv and is likely to launch the operation before April 1, Sivicki said. Since Russian forces do not have enough reserves, Moscow is looking to use Belarus\u2019 combat-worthy units such as special operation forces and several mechanized brigades, which have deployed from five to ten battalion tactical groups in southern Belarus, he noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka and Belarusian generals said that the troops had been deployed to protect the border from alleged threats from Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian army has about 65,000 personnel, including 20,000 civilian employees. The most combat-ready commando units based in Viciebsk, Brest and Maryina Horka have a just a few thousand soldiers. Many Belarusian soldiers are said to be unwilling to fight against Ukrainians.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusian forces operate mostly outdated Soviet-made equipment. Sivicki noted that Belarusian units would not stand a chance against Ukrainians in a hypothetical battle.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If Luka\u0161enka fails to wriggle out of involvement in the Russian campaign, he might try to withdraw troops after the first negative experience, he noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Vladimir Putin may be seeking Belarus\u2019 involvement because he wants Luka\u0161enka to be more of an accomplice in the war to limit his room for maneuver.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After a visit to Moscow last week, Luka\u0161enka said that the Kremlin had promised unprecedented support for Belarus\u2019 economy. Observers wonder that the aid might be conditional on Belarusian troops\u2019 deployment to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Any chance for change?<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t If Belarus attacks Ukraine, the West will respond with severe sanctions, the analysts said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The West still makes a distinction between the positions of Moscow and Minsk with regard to Ukraine. After the Belarusian army\u2019s involvement in the aggression it will make no distinction, Karbalievi\u010d said. \u201cLuka\u0161enka would not be left any room to maneuver, no chance to wriggle out or distance himself from the war.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Some observers say that entering the war would be the last straw for the Luka\u0161enka regime. The move would exacerbate Belarus\u2019 economic hardships and might trigger anti-war protests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Others say that mass protests are unlikely. Earlier economic crises showed that most Belarusians employ survival tactics in times of trouble, trying to hold on to their jobs. Households also move to countryside, to grow food to provide for themselves.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In case of Belarus\u2019 direct participation in the war, the regime would also step up its attacks on any manifestations of dissent and descend into totalitarianism.\n<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe war will lead to a<br \/>\ndecline of Russia, which is the main guarantor of Luka\u0161enka\u2019s staying in power,\u201d<br \/>\nKarbalievi\u010d said. When Russia finds itself \u201cin a very bad situation,\u201d Belarus<br \/>\nwill have greater chances for change, he added.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The General Staff of Ukraine\u2019s Armed Forces said on March 20 that Belarusian troops were preparing to invade Ukraine\u2019s Volyn region within the next day or two, citing military intelligence. Observers note that this is quite possible. Luka\u0161enka no longer in command The Belarusian leader in the last few days accused [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11381","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarusian troops\u2019 involvement in Russia\u2019s aggression possible \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The General Staff of Ukraine\u2019s Armed Forces said on March 20 that Belarusian troops were preparing to invade Ukraine\u2019s Volyn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11381\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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