{"id":11379,"date":"2022-03-20T10:35:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T07:35:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-backs-wrong-horse-in-moscow\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-backs-wrong-horse-in-moscow","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11379\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka backs wrong horse in Moscow"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarus has never been as vulnerable as it is now during 30 years of its independence.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has triggered processes crucial for the region and the rest of the world. The governments of small countries must analyze the dominant trends and back the winner to benefit as much as possible. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has backed the wrong horse.\n<\/p>\n

Russia has lost, and Belarus too<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka\u2019s strategy is built around his conviction or demonstrated conviction that Russia will win the war. \u201cRussia will not lose this war. You are 100% convinced of that, too,\u201d he told Japan\u2019s TBS on March 17.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But he has no other option but to convince himself and his lieutenants that he has backed the right horse.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Developments in Belarus will depend on what happens to Russia after the war ends.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Whatever the outcome, the war will undermine Russia\u2019s economy. Its development has been blocked at the institutional level. Russia has been isolated from the global economy. The technological gap has widened between Russia, and the West and China.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If the West stops imports of Russian oil and gas, its economy may collapse. Russia will not be able to redivide the world in its favor if it fails in Ukraine. After three weeks of Ukraine\u2019s resistance, the Russian offensive can yield only a Pyrrhic victory. Time is working against Russia. Its status erodes with every day of hostility.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has definitely backed the wrong horse. Both Russia and Belarus have no chance of winning this game.\n<\/p>\n

Prime minister sounds alarm<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Belarus\u2019 economy is faltering. Whereas a week or two ago officials had put on a brave face, Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka, Belarus\u2019 prime minister, told his Russian counterpart in Moscow on March 14 that Belarus faced even more severe sanctions than Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He said that Western sanctions targeted almost all export-oriented industries, and imports of parts and raw materials from the West. He said that the banking system \u201chas been caught in cross-fire of the total sanctions of the European Union and the United States.\u201d \u201cIf we take no measures, it will trigger a current account gap, a sharp rise in inflation and a fall in people\u2019s income,\u201d he warned.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The sanctions have already hit the economy. The Belarusian rubel has lost a third of its value. The government has introduced foreign exchange restrictions. Some goods have disappeared from shelves and prices have risen.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The European Union has banned imports of about 70 percent of goods that it bought from Belarus. Ukraine accounted for 14 percent of Belarus\u2019 total sales last year. Exports to Ukraine are expected to plunge.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Western companies, including software developers, have been relocating their staff from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Kremlin cannot save Belarusian economy<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Halo\u016d\u010danka said after the talks that that Moscow promised to reschedule debt repayment and allow Minsk to repay its foreign-currency debt in Russian rubles.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka said on March 15 that Russia would supply energy in nearly the same prices as it sells energy to domestic consumers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow has not yet confirmed the arrangements. It is important for Luka\u0161enka to convince everybody that everything is fine and under control.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk is hoping that the withdrawal of Western companies from Russia will create niches for Belarusian enterprises. However, the Russians\u2019 purchasing power is decreasing.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Imported goods are likely to be in short supply. Russia has already restricted exports, and hundreds of trucks are said to waiting at the border for permissions to enter Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Whatever measures the two government take, Russia and Belarus are brothers in misfortune. The public in the two countries will soon realize it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN Belarus has never been as vulnerable as it is now during 30 years of its independence. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has triggered processes crucial for the region and the rest of the world. The governments of small countries must analyze the dominant trends and back the winner to benefit as much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11379","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka backs wrong horse in Moscow | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN Belarus has never been as vulnerable as it is now during 30 years of its independence. 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