{"id":11362,"date":"2022-02-23T14:14:55","date_gmt":"2022-02-23T11:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-can-hardly-avoid-recognizing-ukraines-breakaway-territories-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-can-hardly-avoid-recognizing-ukraines-breakaway-territories-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11362\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka can hardly avoid recognizing Ukraine\u2019s breakaway territories \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka is likely to follow Moscow in recognizing Ukraine\u2019s breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk Peope\u2019s Republics regardless of possible adverse consequences for himself. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia recognized the breakaway republics on February 22 and urged others to follow its example. The Belarusian foreign ministry said it respected and understood Moscow\u2019s decision.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka did not touch on the subject in his February 22 address to the military personnel on the eve of Fatherland Defender\u2019s Day.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka in difficult situation<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t A few days earlier, the Belarusian leader said that he would discuss with Vladimir Putin what to do should Moscow recognize the breakaway territories. \u201cWe will come to agreement with Putin what we should do, so that it will be better for Russia and Belarus. It will be a joint decision.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Probably, Luka\u0161enka just wanted to emphasize his loyalty to the Kremlin. But recognition may further damage his already diminished reputation and is fraught with new sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka will delay recognition and will be hoping to avoid it, said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst. If this is not a matter of principle for Moscow, he can get away with it, he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But Paviel Usa\u016d, of the Warsaw-based Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis, disagreed. Luka\u0161enka is not in a position to bargain as he did in 2008 and 2014, he told BPN.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk did not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states in 2008, and did not formally recognized Crimea as Russia\u2019s territory in 2014.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka is the Kremlin\u2019s tool, Usa\u016d said, adding that he will certainly recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk republics.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Possible consequences for Belarus<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Recognition would prompt the West to impose additional new sanctions on Belarus and would strain the country\u2019s already fraught relationship with Ukraine, Karbalievi\u010d said. He noted that the Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republics might seek membership of the Union State of Belarus and Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cAfter it [the Union State] is joined by Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, it will become a joke, a union of puppet states fully dependent on Russia,\u201d he said. \u201cLuka\u0161enka will vanish in this bad company.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader used to receive economic subsidies from Moscow for Belarus\u2019 membership of the Union State, but he will no longer be an exclusive partner if other republics join in.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Recognition would \u201cfurther undermine even the formal aspects of Belarus\u2019 sovereignty and independence\u201d as the Kremlin seeks to reduce Belarus\u2019 statehood to nothing, Usa\u016d said.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Creeping expansion<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Karbalievi\u010d noted that in his February 22 televised address Putin questioned the existence of independent states after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In his speech laced with anti-Ukrainian and imperialistic rhetoric, Putin made it clear that Belarus and Ukraine became independent states incidentally as a result of historical errors that must to be corrected.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia is now on the brink of war with Ukraine. In Belarus, Moscow takes advantage of the Luka\u0161enka regime\u2019s weakness to consolidate its influence under the guise of deeper integration and Union State programs.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Whereas before Luka\u0161enka managed to manipulate tensions between Russia and the West in his favor, he can no longer resist Russia\u2019s creeping expansion since he broke off ties with the West, ramped up his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and lost much of his public support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka is likely to follow Moscow in recognizing Ukraine\u2019s breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk Peope\u2019s Republics regardless of possible adverse consequences for himself. Russia recognized the breakaway republics on February 22 and urged others to follow its example. The Belarusian foreign ministry said it respected and understood Moscow\u2019s decision. Luka\u0161enka did [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11362","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Luka\u0161enka can hardly avoid recognizing Ukraine\u2019s breakaway territories \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka is likely to follow Moscow in recognizing Ukraine\u2019s breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk Peope\u2019s Republics\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11362\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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