{"id":11356,"date":"2022-02-19T23:42:11","date_gmt":"2022-02-19T20:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-may-partially-achieve-his-objectives-through-referendum-jahorau\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-may-partially-achieve-his-objectives-through-referendum-jahorau","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11356\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka may partially achieve his objectives through referendum \u2013 Jahora\u016d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian authorities will not leave anything to chance or surprise during the constitutional referendum scheduled for February 27. The official result is likely to be in favor of a new constitution. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

\n Opposition banished from commissions, observation <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) observation mission is led by Leanid Anifima\u016d, ex-chairman of the State Control Committee of Belarus who was directly answerable to Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka before the 2020 presidential election.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t CIS observers have always turned a blind eye to allegations of irregularities during Belarus\u2019 elections. International observers also include election officials from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Tajikistan, and monitors from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They are unlikely to document and report any irregularities.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk has not invited observers from the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t State media reported that Belarus\u2019 election authorities have accredited nearly 40,000 domestic observers. Most of them represent pro-government parties and associations, as well as worker staffs.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition election monitoring groups said they will not deploy observers for fear of persecution. All opposition nominees for seats on election commissions have been rejected. In addition, authorities have refused to disclose the names of election officials. The lack of transparency gives officials a free hand to enter any numbers in election protocols.\n<\/p>\n

Opposition plan likely to fail<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Authorities have announced that election booths will have no curtains and that police and security personnel will be present at polling stations.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition leaders initially called on voters to spoil ballots by crossing both boxes and take pictures of their spoiled ballots so that they can be counted on a digital platform. Since the booths will be open, voters are unlikely to take pictures at the ballot booths for fear of arrest, said Andrej Jeliseje\u016d, director of the Warsaw-based EAST think tank. A boycott of the referendum does not seem to be the worst tactic under such circumstances, he added.\n<\/p>\n

Referendum is nothing more than ceremony<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka sees the referendum as a ceremony intended to demonstrate public support for him, not as a mechanism to bolster his legitimacy, Jeliseje\u016d said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities are likely to report high turnout for the five-day early voting period, maybe even in excess of 50 percent of registered voters, Jeliseje\u016d said. The official early voting turnout was 41.7 percent during Belarus\u2019 2020 presidential election. Ihar Karpienka, head of the central election commission, said earlier this week that he expected early voting turnout in the region of 40 percent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opponents have criticized the early voting process as vulnerable to abuse.\n<\/p>\n

New normal<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Any attempts to expose election fraud are important, said Andrej Jahora\u016d, director of the Center for European Transformation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is selling the new constitution as a solution to Belarus\u2019 political crisis in an attempt to regain some legitimacy, he told BPN<\/span>. He may partially achieve his political objectives, he noted. In particular, he may convince some voters the complete lack of democracy is a new normal, and convince the elite that he is in control and that he has a plan for power transition, Jahora\u016d said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He noted that the regime is unlikely to survive without change because most Belarusians still believe that the state is on a wrong track. The regime\u2019s survival considerably depends on Russian economic and political support, he added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian authorities will not leave anything to chance or surprise during the constitutional referendum scheduled for February 27. The official result is likely to be in favor of a new constitution. Opposition banished from commissions, observation The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) observation mission is led by Leanid Anifima\u016d, ex-chairman […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11356","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka may partially achieve his objectives through referendum \u2013 Jahora\u016d | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian authorities will not leave anything to chance or surprise during the constitutional referendum scheduled for\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11356\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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