{"id":11354,"date":"2022-02-19T17:29:55","date_gmt":"2022-02-19T14:29:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-ready-to-fight-alongside-russia-for-donbass\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-ready-to-fight-alongside-russia-for-donbass","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11354\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka ready to fight alongside Russia for Donbass"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka told Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyev on February 6 that Belarus will fight alongside Russia if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. \u201cLuka\u0161enka has snapped to attention\u201d waiting for orders from Vladimir Putin, commented Jury Drakachrust, a Belarusian political analyst. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIf they [Ukrainians] start a war against Donbass, what will the Belarusian army do?\u201d Solovyev asked. \u201cJust the same as the Russian [army],\u201d Luka\u0161enka replied. \u201cWill it be a joint response?\u201d Solovyev asked. \u201cOf course,\u201d Luka\u0161enka said. He did not rule out missile attacks on Ukraine. \u201cAnd not only this,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In his annual address to the nation and parliament on January 28, Luka\u0161enka said that the Belarusian army will fight only if Belarus or Russia come under attack. The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republics are part of Ukraine. Neither Minsk nor Moscow deny it.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t With his new statement, Luka\u0161enka went one step further in supporting the Kremlin\u2019s military gambles.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Jeliseje\u016d: Luka\u0161enka selling weakness as strength<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has relied on Kremlin for political survival after the August 2020 presidential election sparked mass protests in Belarus against alleged electoral fraud. In September 2020 he asked the Russian president for assistance in restoring order in his country.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Since then, he has taken an anti-Ukrainian stance, whereas before he tried to demonstrate a degree of independence from Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In the interview with Solovyev, Luka\u0161enka accused Ukraine of making subversive and aggressive plans and severely criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But his statement on Belarus\u2019 readiness to fight alongside Russia in an armed conflict in eastern Ukraine is definitely the regime\u2019s new line.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka\u2019s position has changed from neutrality under pressure from Moscow, said Andrej Jeliseje\u016d, director of the Warsaw-based EAST think tank. \u201cHe claims that it is his own position to disguise his dependence on Moscow,\u201d he told BPN. \u201cHe passes off his weakness as his strength.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Usa\u016d: Minsk to step into the fray<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka relies on Moscow for his political survival, so there is no way he can use tension between Russia and Ukraine to reset relations with the West, said Paviel Usa\u016d, of the Warsaw-based Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia may use Belarus as a staging ground for provocations and attacks if it goes to war with Ukraine, he told BPN. Luka\u0161enka is a foot-soldier in Russia\u2019s hybrid war, he said.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Besieged fortress<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka said that he will stay in office as long as there is some tension around or in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Even if NATO and Ukraine do not plan to attack, he can promote his narrative of Belarus as a besieged fortress to achieve his political goals. The Belarusian authorities and propaganda have cultivated the besieged fortress mentality since the August 2020 presidential election, stressing that Luka\u0161enka is indispensable and that only he can save the country.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But despite his aggressive rhetoric, he does not seem to be genuinely interested in a real armed conflict, which may lead to his fall. But he benefits from tension between Moscow and Kyiv and uses it to prove the Kremlin that he is indispensable. Obviously, he is playing with fire, but he has no other option.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>How long can Luka\u0161enka rule?<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka would like to hold on to power as long as he can, but the Russian military presence in Belarus makes him vulnerable and dependent on Putin.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin wants Luka\u0161enka to remain in power to oversee the implementation of the 28 integration programs that he signed last fall, Jeliseje\u016d said. As long as he complies with Moscow\u2019s strategic wishes, the Kremlin does not need to replace him, he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIt makes no sense to change Luka\u0161enka amid the rising tension between Russia and the West because this would create unpredictability and instability in Belarus,\u201d said Usa\u016d. But the Belarusian leader has driven himself into the corner, and Moscow \u201ccan remove him any moment,\u201d he stressed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka told Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyev on February 6 that Belarus will fight alongside Russia if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. \u201cLuka\u0161enka has snapped to attention\u201d waiting for orders from Vladimir Putin, commented Jury Drakachrust, a Belarusian political analyst. \u201cIf they [Ukrainians] start a war against Donbass, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11354","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Luka\u0161enka ready to fight alongside Russia for Donbass | 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