{"id":11352,"date":"2022-02-17T03:59:17","date_gmt":"2022-02-17T00:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-benefits-from-tension-between-moscow-west-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-benefits-from-tension-between-moscow-west-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11352\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka benefits from tension between Moscow, West \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka said on February 14 that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus is \u201chis business with\u201d Vladimir Putin. Luka\u0161enka’s remark indicates that there is still uncertainty. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t The Russian president told his French counterpart one day earlier that all Russian troops would leave Belarus after joint maneuvers scheduled to conclude on February 20. The leaders of Belarus and Russia are expected to meet this week, the Kremlin said.\n<\/p>\n

Parotnika\u016d: Luka\u0161enka looking to resume geopolitical seesaw ride<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t After Allied Resolve 2022 Minsk may ask Moscow to leave at least one S-400 battalion in Belarus for protecting its southern border, Andrej Parotnika\u016d, of Belarus Security Blog, told BPN<\/span>. \u201cThat would be presented as a joint decision by equal partners envisaging the maintenance of the surface-to-air missile systems by Russian personnel on a rotation principle,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka may deliberately delay Russian withdrawal, Parotnika\u016d said. He \u201cdecided that this is his moment of glory. The West needs him again, or at least interested in him again, so he will make much fuss about Russian military presence on the Belarusian soil to show that he is important and indispensable and to get something in return.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He added that Luka\u0161enka has invited the West to start bargaining as he tries to mount the geopolitical seesaw again. He wants to \u201cwave kisses\u201d to the East and to the West to benefit as much as possible from both sides, Parotnika\u016d said.  \n<\/p>\n

West does not see Belarus as independent player<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Arciom \u0160rajbman, a Belarusian political analyst, disagreed with Parotnika\u016d. He said that Luka\u0161enka can no longer control Russian deployments and withdrawals in Belarus. If Putin decides to keep troops in Belarus after the exercises, Luka\u0161enka will simply comply with that decision, he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If the Kremlin orders its forces to stay, it would be a message to the West that Putin is determined to go to war and the West must make concessions, \u0160rajbman said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Arsien Sivicki, of the Sarmat AnalytiX consulting company, noted that the West will discuss withdrawal with the Kremlin, not with Luka\u0161enka. The latter \u201cwants to put himself back on the regional security agenda to show that he is still an independent player and that not all depends on the Kremlin or on some agreements between the Kremlin and Western capitals,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

\u0160rajbman: Luka\u0161enka prefers to sell rhetoric rather than assets<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t That Luka\u0161enka has become much more dependent on Moscow after 2020 protests is beyond any doubt. But describing him as the Kremlin\u2019s vassal or puppet seems to be oversimplification. In a way, he is using Moscow to hold on to power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cLuka\u0161enka is not interested in war or peace\u201d between Russia and Ukraine, \u0160rajbman said. If a war broke out, he would face the same or even harsher sanctions for his conspiracy in aggression, he noted. In addition, the prospect of war is extremely unpopular in Belarus among his supporters, so he will try to avoid direct involvement, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A complete peace between Russia and NATO is not in his interests too because it would enable the West to pursue a more calculated policy with regard to Moscow and Minsk, he told BPN<\/span>.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He would like this dispute to simmer as long as possible to be able to sell Moscow \u201cmilitary brotherhood\u201d rhetoric instead of sacrificing assets such as Belaruskali, Naftan and the tax system, \u0160rajbman said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka stands to benefit from his loyalty to Moscow because a war looks unlikely and tension is unlikely to ease in the foreseeable future, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Luka\u0161enka may derive some tactical benefits from his absolute fealty to Moscow, he loses strategically as he sees his influence wane.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka said on February 14 that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus is \u201chis business with\u201d Vladimir Putin. Luka\u0161enka’s remark indicates that there is still uncertainty. The Russian president told his French counterpart one day earlier that all Russian troops would leave Belarus after joint maneuvers scheduled to conclude […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11352","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka benefits from tension between Moscow, West \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka said on February 14 that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus is \u201chis business with\u201d Vladimir\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11352\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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