{"id":11342,"date":"2022-01-28T05:55:35","date_gmt":"2022-01-28T02:55:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/russia-unlikely-to-use-its-belarus-based-contingent-to-attack-ukraine-occupy-belarus\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"russia-unlikely-to-use-its-belarus-based-contingent-to-attack-ukraine-occupy-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11342\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia unlikely to use its Belarus-based contingent to attack Ukraine, occupy Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Aliesin<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Moscow and Minsk see Allied Resolve 2022 as an opportunity to rehearse the deployment of Russian troops and hardware to Belarus and assess the transport infrastructure capacity. The exercise also may be intended to scare the public and politicians in Ukraine and NATO countries. Russia is unlikely to attack Ukraine.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka approved the war game\u2019s synopsis on January 17.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Troops travel from Far East<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Col. Gen. Aleksandr Fomin, Russia\u2019s deputy defense minister, said on January 18 that the exercise will involve command elements and units of the Eastern Military District as Minsk and Moscow seek to practice a major reinforcement of the two countries\u2019 Regional Group of Forces.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Allied Resolve 2022 will involve nearly all assets of the Belarusian Armed Forces, units of Russia\u2019s Eastern Military District, Aerospace and Airborne Forces, said Maj. Gen. Andrej Niekra\u0161evi\u010d, chief of the Main Combat Training Directorate of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He said that Western Military District units that took part in Zapad maneuvers before will not be involved.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Two stages<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russia is expected to deploy reinforced all-arms units (10 battalion tactical groups) from the Eastern Military District, as well as air defense, rocket and artillery units of the Land Forces, including units equipped with Iskander-M (NATO: SS-26 Stone) short-range ballistic missile systems.&nbsp;&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Col. Gen. Fomin stressed that the movement of troops will be an opportunity to test the transport infrastructure\u2019s ability to transport large numbers of troops and equipment.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Stage 1 (until February 9) includes the deployment of Russian troops to Belarus, facility guarding, defense, counter-insurgency and air defense drills. Russia also plans to deploy 12 Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighters, two S-400 (SA-21 Growler) surface-to-air missile battalions and a Pantsir-S (SA-22 Greyhound) surface-to-air missile battalion.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Stage 2 includes a defense operation to repel an external invasion and counter-terrorism drills. Stage 2 training will take place at the Damana\u016dski, Ho\u017eski, Abuz-Liasno\u016dski, Brescki and Asipovi\u010dski training grounds. Aircraft will take off from the Baranavi\u010dy, Luniniec, Lida and Ma\u010duli\u0161\u010dy airfields to carry out training missions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Most of these sites are located close to Belarus\u2019 shared border with NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Russia cannot dispatch 100,000 troops to Belarus<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Viena Document 2011 requires its signatories, including Belarus and Russia, to notify other member countries of any exercises involving more than 9,000 troops, 250 main battle tanks, 500 armored vehicles and 250 artillery systems.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Some observers suggested that Russia may bring in 100,000 troops to occupy Belarus or launch an attack on Ukraine to stretch out its defenses.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, an analysis of the list of units to be involved and their personnel suggests that Russia plans to deploy between 8,000 and 10,000 troops, including support and logistics personnel not subject to accountability requirements under Vienna Document 2011.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus may field roughly the same number of troops, so the two countries may not exceed the upper limit set by the Vienna Document. Still, Allied Resolve will be by far the largest joint military exercise ever held in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The claim that Moscow may use its forces arriving in Belarus to attack Ukraine is too far off the base. The contingent is not big enough, while Moscow and Minsk do not seem to be planning an invasion. The massing of Russian troops near Ukraine seems to be part of Russia\u2019s information and psychological warfare.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The probability that Russia will use its troops to occupy Belarus is remote. This does not seem to be Vladimir Putin\u2019s goal at the moment. However, the increased Russian military presence definitely creates additional risks for Belarus\u2019 sovereignty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Aliesin Moscow and Minsk see Allied Resolve 2022 as an opportunity to rehearse the deployment of Russian troops and hardware to Belarus and assess the transport infrastructure capacity. The exercise also may be intended to scare the public and politicians in Ukraine and NATO countries. Russia is unlikely to attack Ukraine. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11342","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Russia unlikely to use its Belarus-based contingent to attack Ukraine, occupy Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Moscow and Minsk see Allied Resolve 2022 as an opportunity to rehearse the deployment of Russian troops and hardware to Belarus and\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11342\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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