{"id":11339,"date":"2022-01-22T14:58:21","date_gmt":"2022-01-22T11:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/power-handover-status-quo-fraught-with-danger-for-lukasenka\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"power-handover-status-quo-fraught-with-danger-for-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11339\/","title":{"rendered":"Power handover, status quo fraught with danger for Luka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n The draft constitution proposed for the February 27 referendum can still be updated to reflect lessons learned by Belarusian officials from a violent revolt in Kazakhstan earlier this month. But officials have no time or political will to revise it fundamentally.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Autocrats playing with fire<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Any autocratic regime arrives at a point where launching political reform is a high risk but the lack of it is even riskier. This is the situation the government in Belarus faces right now.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Regimes in China, Chile, Poland, Romania and many other countries arrived at that point in the 1980s. Most of those regimes fell. Few systems, China is one of them, managed to survive.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Romanian case is particularly interesting. The Romanian Communist Party at its convention in November 1989 rejected reform proposals and reelected Nicolae Ceausescu for a new five-year term in defiance of pro-reform public sentiment. Ceausescu had only two ideas for the future at the time \u2013 he sought to adopt Joseph Stalin\u2019s techniques to deal with dissent and form an alliance of Socialist countries opposed to systemic change.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t One month after his reelection, Ceausescu was shot and killed by members of his old guard. Certainly, this is not to say that the outcome is absolutely predetermined for those who reject reform. But the Romanian case proves that the elite\u2019s cohesion may be an illusion and that avoiding reform may be potentially riskier than reform.\n<\/p>\n

\u201cI absolutely don\u2019t need the process.\u201d No doubt<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s regime faces a crisis as grave as crises that befell the above-mentioned regimes in the 1980s. The signs of crisis include the lack of internal and external legitimacy, international isolation, Luka\u0161enka\u2019s vassal relationship with the Kremlin, the resignation of competent officials from the system and economic challenges.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He launched constitutional reform not for the fun of it. \u201cI absolutely don\u2019t need the process,\u201d he said, and this is true. He would leave everything as it is, but he is aware of the risk of a sudden and unmanageable collapse of the system with bad consequences for himself and his family. He knows that he must do something to prevent it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka held another conference with officials on January 18 to discuss constitutional changes. The discussion focused on the allocation of power between the presidency and the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The idea behind the assembly is clear: Luka\u0161enka does not want his power to depend on electoral mechanisms. He would like to free himself from this dependence through simulated democracy. Officials have been discussing for 11 months a formula of democracy without democracy, checks and balances without checks and balances, power sharing without giving away power. The formula does not exist.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The constitution drafters had an impossible mission to combine the presidential system of governance and the empowered All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly without giving rise to risks associated with the existence of two centers of power. In addition, they were tasked with guaranteeing that Luka\u0161enka will be able to pull strings after he retires.\n<\/p>\n

Little room for maneuver<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t When the Kazakh system was still functioning, the constitution drafters had a prototype they could copy. But the Kazakhstan crisis showed how dangerous a power-sharing arrangement can be.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Nursultan Nazarbayev had a much better reputation among the bureaucracy, businesses and internationally than Luka\u0161enka when he was leaving office. His public approval ratings were also higher. Meanwhile, time can heal many ills but not Luka\u0161enka\u2019s reputation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials can edit the draft constitution in an effort to forestall a Kazakhstan-like outcome. But they do not have time for it. Even if they had, they would choose between high-risk and medium-risk options for keeping Luka\u0161enka in power, between a Nazarbayev-type exit and Ceausescu\u2019s death.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regime has almost no room for maneuver. The only thing it can do is to delay change as much as possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies The draft constitution proposed for the February 27 referendum can still be updated to reflect lessons learned by Belarusian officials from a violent revolt in Kazakhstan earlier this month. But officials have no time or political will to revise it fundamentally. Autocrats playing with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11339","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPower handover, status quo fraught with danger for Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies The draft constitution proposed for the February 27 referendum can still\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11339\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Power handover, status quo fraught with danger for Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By 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