{"id":11338,"date":"2022-01-22T03:57:07","date_gmt":"2022-01-22T00:57:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/referendum-authorities-gear-up-for-lopsided-victory\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"referendum-authorities-gear-up-for-lopsided-victory","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11338\/","title":{"rendered":"Referendum: Authorities gear up for lopsided victory"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka issued an edict on January 20 to schedule a constitutional referendum for February 27. Observers note that he is not really interested in changing the constitution.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\u201cYes\u201d or \u201cNo\u201d<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t It would be better for Luka\u0161enka not to change anything. He cannot sell the new constitution as a concession to Moscow. The new basic law will not benefit the bureaucracy. The Luka\u0161enka supporters do not see a point in changing anything since they have already won. Opponents consider the forthcoming referendum a sham.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the Belarusian ruler could not stop the reform process that he had launched during 2020 post-election protests in an attempt to ease social tension.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The referendum question is: \u201cDo you accept amendments and additions to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus?\u201d Voters can answer \u201cYes\u201d or \u201cNo.\u201d The ballot leaves no room for discussion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In all, the authors rewrote 83 articles, deleted two and added 11, Ihar Siarhijenka, head of the Presidential Administration, said on January 18.\n<\/p>\n

Opponents unable to disrupt plebiscite<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Most Belarusians did not bother to read the draft. Their attitude depends on whether they support or disapprove Luka\u0161enka\u2019s policies. His supporters are likely to choose \u201cYes,\u201d if urged to do so by officials and state television networks.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Only 27 percent of city and town residents back Luka\u0161enka, found a November poll by Chatham House. Nearly half of Belarusians would not vote for Luka\u0161enka under any circumstances, said Heorhy Astapienia, of the Center of New Ideas, while presenting the survey on January 20.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has not enough support for an elegant victory at an honest referendum. But votes are unlikely to be counted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition leaders have called on voters to spoil their ballots by marking off both options. The tactic may not succeed because election officials are unlikely to count and declare the number of invalid ballots. They will simply announce the result that Luka\u0161enka wants to hear.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition camp has also called on voters to turn up for vote at the same time. Police may respond by arresting people gathering outside polling stations.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most opponents based in Belarus are unlikely to take risks because the old constitution is not any better than the new one. Both texts enable Luka\u0161enka to remain in power as long as he wishes. Therefore, most opposition voters will sit out.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Undecided or neutral voters do not have any reason to vote too. Some of them will turn up because authorities told them to.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although turnout is likely to be low, nobody will know about it because there will be no observers, and election authorities are likely to inflate numbers. Administrations at state enterprises and establishments may be compelling voters to go to the polls.\n<\/p>\n

Food for propaganda<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Technically, authorities will find it easy to conduct the referendum. Expenses on it are not high and officials have a lot of experience in imitating elections.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Belarusians are legally allowed to campaign for and against a referendum and options proposed at a referendum, only authorities and state media are likely to promote the draft constitution. Opponents are afraid to speak out for fear of arrest.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Under the electoral code, turnout of at least 50 percent is required for a referendum to be valid. A referendum decision is valid if it receives more than half of votes. Theoretically, approval by 25 percent of the registered voters would be enough.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka will not accept low turnout and low approval numbers. He sees the referendum at a source of additional legitimacy for himself Therefore, the central election commission is likely to declare turnout well above 50 percent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In practice, the referendum cannot significantly bolster Luka\u0161enka\u2019s legitimacy. The official result would just give some food for propaganda. The opposition camp has called on the West not to recognize the referendum results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka issued an edict on January 20 to schedule a constitutional referendum for February 27. Observers note that he is not really interested in changing the constitution. \u201cYes\u201d or \u201cNo\u201d It would be better for Luka\u0161enka not to change anything. He cannot sell the new constitution as a concession to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11338","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nReferendum: Authorities gear up for lopsided victory | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka issued an edict on January 20 to schedule a constitutional referendum for February 27. 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