{"id":11326,"date":"2022-01-08T02:33:56","date_gmt":"2022-01-07T23:33:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-may-have-doubts-about-power-transition-after-kazakhstan-revolt\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-may-have-doubts-about-power-transition-after-kazakhstan-revolt","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11326\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka may have doubts about power transition after Kazakhstan revolt"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has sent troops to Kazakhstan to assist its government with suppressing public protests. Authoritarian regimes lack mechanisms for defusing internal tension. Authorities did not see it coming because of a lack of proper feedback from the public. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

\n Authoritarian power transition fraught with crises <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t Kazakhstan\u2019s protests were largely spontaneous like the 2020 post-election demonstrations in Belarus. In contrast to Belarus, both protesters and police used lethal weapons in Kazakhstan. At least 30 protesters and 13 police officers were killed in clashes in Almaty, authorities said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The events prove that public anger can boil over quite unexpectedly. The revolt was sparked by the government\u2019s decision to lift price caps for liquefied petroleum gas.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The developments have cast doubt on conclusions made by some Belarusian commentators that Western sanctions and possible resulting economic hardships would only strengthen the Belarusian regime. Social and economic woes can be a spark that starts a fire, while anger over price hikes can quickly translate into political demands.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Power transition often leads to crises in authoritarian systems. The process that took three years and seemed completely controllable in Kazakhstan failed anyway. Protesters directed their anger at ex-President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his clan.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka should be worried<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Kazakhstan\u2019s protests are a harbinger of what may come to Belarus whose constitutional reform may lead to the establishment of two centers of power. President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan seized the opportunity to purge government agencies of Nazarbayev\u2019s relatives and loyal supporters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The former president was dismissed from the Security Council, although he had been given that seat for life. If Tokayev manages to suppress the protests, he may try to distance himself from the former president and even launch a campaign to expose his abuses.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Aliaskandr Luka\u0161enka might have come to regret his decision to give the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly extra powers. He should have fears that his successor may eventually betray him in competition for power.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka advocates CSTO meddling in internal affairs<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Tokayev appealed to the CSTO, a Russian-led military bloc, for support in despair. He did not seem to be sure that he could control his country\u2019s security forces, especially after protesters seized administrative buildings.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka appealed to Russia for assistance during the August-September 2020 post-election protests in Belarus. The Russian president put a contingent on high alert but did not use it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authoritarian leaders behave in similar ways. They are ready to surrender part of their nations\u2019 sovereignty to cling to power. And they use similar rhetoric to portray opponents as foreign-sponsored terrorists.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has always advocated the CSTO\u2019s interference in internal affairs to suppress unrest in member states. In 2010 he criticized the bloc for its failure to prevent Kurmanbek Bakiyev\u2019s ouster in Kyrgyzstan.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The CSTO did not intervene to quell 2018 protests in Armenia and stayed out of the 2020 clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The CSTO Charter says that the bloc was established to defend its member states from external attacks. The Charter does not allow the SCTO to intervene in internal political clashes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Tokayev blamed the revolt on foreign-trained terrorist groups to bypass that legal obstacle.\n<\/p>\n

CSTO to defend authoritarian leaders from masses<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The CSTO\u2019s intervention in Kazakhstan marks a change in its strategy. Belarus and Russia have repressive authoritarian regimes that have stopped imitating democracy. Moscow has been doing its best to prevent opposition groups from overthrowing authoritarian regimes in neighboring countries for fear that it may unsettle Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As Russia seeks to resurge into its former Soviet sphere it does not care about backlash from Washington and Brussels.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The CSTO has become a military bloc that defends authoritarian regimes from disenchanted people. It is similar to the Warsaw Treaty Organization that was used by the Soviet Union to suppress public uprisings in Hungary in 1956 and in the Czech Republic in 1968.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kazakh events are likely to heighten tension between Russia and the West. Russian and Belarusian state propaganda has already accused the West of orchestrating the Kazakh protests.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kazakhstan appears to be following the same path as Belarus. Astana may see its relations with the West deteriorate and dependence on Russia grow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has sent troops to Kazakhstan to assist its government with suppressing public protests. Authoritarian regimes lack mechanisms for defusing internal tension. Authorities did not see it coming because of a lack of proper feedback from the public. Authoritarian power transition fraught with crises Kazakhstan\u2019s protests were […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11326","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka may have doubts about power transition after Kazakhstan revolt | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has sent troops to Kazakhstan to assist its government with suppressing public\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11326\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Luka\u0161enka may have doubts about power transition 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