{"id":11323,"date":"2022-01-05T00:05:38","date_gmt":"2022-01-04T21:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-authorities-to-keep-terrorizing-opponents-in-2022-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-authorities-to-keep-terrorizing-opponents-in-2022-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11323\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian authorities to keep terrorizing opponents in 2022 \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian regime will keep up its attacks on dissidents in 2022. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s move to introduce a new constitution will not meet with much resistance. A rapprochement with the West is highly unlikely in the next few years, say political pundits.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The authorities have published the draft constitution for public discussion amid a relentless crackdown on opponents. The government hopes to stem protests in the run-up and during the referendum coming up in late February.\n<\/p>\n

Referendum is a one-sided game<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cPreparations for the referendum will be accompanied by political purges, persecution and terror,\u201d said Paviel Usa\u016d, of the Warsaw-based Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition leaders have called on voters to come to the polls in order to spoil their ballots. \u201cThe criterion of success of this tactic is a mystery,\u201d said Arciom \u0160rajbman, a Belarusian political analyst. He does not expect major protests or a surprise result. The authorities have left nothing to chance, he noted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition\u2019s tactic makes little sense because opponents will not be able to count how many ballots have been invalidated. The opposition camp will hardly be able to use online tools because the authorities closely watch the Internet. Even if they were able to count spoiled ballots, authorities can always dismiss their claims as unfounded.\n<\/p>\n

Neo-totalitarian regime<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Security forces will be on guard to thwart any collective manifestations of dissent. Police will be able to disperse large groups of people converging on polling stations. New mass arrests may frustrate opposition supporters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The referendum will be a test for the regime, which may use it to stake out a new claim to legitimacy, Usa\u016d said. The election authorities are likely to declare a victory for Luka\u0161enka\u2019s new constitution with at least 60 percent of the vote, he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cBut the official result will not deceive voters or build a political consensus,\u201d he told BPN. Luka\u0161enka and his lieutenants perfectly realize that they can hold on to power only through the use of force.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He described the Belarusian regime as neo-totalitarian. The government closely watches various groups, including bureaucrats, economically and politically active people, and forces those discontent with its policy out of the country. Security agencies have been playing greater role in decision-making and political control.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is trying to build a totalitarian system in the Internet age, said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d in a recent interview with BPN.\n<\/p>\n

Thaw with West unlikely<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t State propaganda has been trumpeting the draft new constitution as a move away from totalitarianism toward checks and balances and democracy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka should not even try to sell the new constitution to the West in hope that it will lift sanctions, \u0160rajbman said, noting that confrontation has gone too far. Western countries have stated unequivocally that they do not recognize Luka\u0161fenka as president and it seems to be the point of no return, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cI would not expect a breakthrough, especially in 2022. Although I would not rule out selective pardons as it happened in 2021,\u201d \u0160rajbman said.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka would be eligible to rule until 2035<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka will not rush to rebuild the political system as required by the new constitution, \u0160rajbman said. The new basic law gives him two years to bring current laws into line with the constitution. The government will have 12 months to pass a new law governing the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Elections will not be held until February 2024. Luka\u0161enka will be able to see out his current term and run for two more five-year terms. The only question is how long his regime can hold out relying on violence and intimidation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian regime will keep up its attacks on dissidents in 2022. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s move to introduce a new constitution will not meet with much resistance. A rapprochement with the West is highly unlikely in the next few years, say political pundits. The authorities have published the draft constitution for public […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11323","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarusian authorities to keep terrorizing opponents in 2022 \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian regime will keep up its attacks on dissidents in 2022. 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