{"id":11319,"date":"2021-12-31T06:28:36","date_gmt":"2021-12-31T03:28:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/moscow-to-deepen-its-footprint-in-belarus-under-lukasenka\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"moscow-to-deepen-its-footprint-in-belarus-under-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11319\/","title":{"rendered":"Moscow to deepen its footprint in Belarus under Luka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Vladimir Putin dropped in on Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka before their meeting in Saint Petersburg on December 29 apparently in appreciation of the Belarusian leader\u2019s recent political concessions to Moscow. The two played ice hockey in one team after the talks. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Defused tension<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t There were signs of tension between Minsk and Moscow last month. The Kremlin was apparently unhappy with the Belarusian government\u2019s attack on Russia\u2019s newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda in Belarus. Putin advised Luka\u0161enka to engage with the opposition, while Luka\u0161enka said he would do so after Putin engages with Alexei Navalny.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Observers wondered whether Putin was putting pressure on Luka\u0161enka to encourage him to launch a political reform and step down shortly after the adoption of a new constitution.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian government published the draft constitution last week. Based on its content it does not look like Luka\u0161enka is planning an early presidential election. Quite the contrary, it indirectly points to the Belarusian ruler\u2019s desire to stay in power much longer.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Putin heaped praise on Luka\u0161enka during his warm reception in Saint Petersburg on December 29. The latter seems to have persuaded the Russian president that he is in control and there is no need to rush with power transition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kremlin is unlikely to object the Luka\u0161enka-proposed constitutional reform that would only see him consolidate his grip on power. Moscow is happy with Luka\u0161enka\u2019s anti-Western stance and his recent statements inviting Russia to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Assistance in small doses<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Moscow has cut its economic support for Belarus in the last few years. But the latter fared quite well in 2021, benefiting from brisk demand that came on the back of global economic recovery.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Still, the outlook is darkening with economists predicting stagnation or recession in 2022.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In addition, Minsk is to repay $3.3 billion to its creditors in 2022 and $4.7 billion in 2023, according to Mikalaj Snapko\u016d, first deputy prime minister. Belarus does not have access to Western capital markets, so it relies mainly on Moscow for support. Minsk has asked for a $3.5-billion loan from the Moscow-led Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia is likely to approve it for fear that Minsk may default on its debts to Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In September, Putin promised that Russia will lend Belarus up to $640 million before the end of 2022. Russia also gave Minsk a considerable discount for natural gas being supplied at $128.5 per 1000 cu meters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is difficult to predict what impact Western sanctions may have on Belarus in 2022.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow is not interested in Belarus\u2019 economic collapse, but it is unlikely to be very generous. Its measured economic assistance should be just enough to prompt Luka\u0161enka to unite Belarus with Russia.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka\u2019s recent concessions<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader signed 28 Belarusian-Russian integration programs in a major concession to Moscow in 2021. The package provides for the harmonization of the two economies and is expected to increase Belarus\u2019 dependence on Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow considers sending Boris Gryzlov, a former Duma speaker, as ambassador to Belarus with an apparent mission to accelerate integration, monitor Belarus\u2019 political reform and build up Russia\u2019s soft power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka declared recently his determination to recognize Crimea as Russia\u2019s territory and said that he would back Moscow in any conflict with Ukraine. He has also refused to engage with the West and has ramped up anti-Western rhetoric.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Clearly, he does not want to cede any ground to his opponents whom he considers Western puppets. Nor is he willing to cede power to the Kremlin. His greatest fear is democratization and free elections. He is scared of losing power and being held accountable for alleged corruption and other crimes. He prefers to be Moscow\u2019s vassal instead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Vladimir Putin dropped in on Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka before their meeting in Saint Petersburg on December 29 apparently in appreciation of the Belarusian leader\u2019s recent political concessions to Moscow. The two played ice hockey in one team after the talks. Defused tension There were signs of tension between Minsk and Moscow last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11319","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMoscow to deepen its footprint in Belarus under Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Vladimir Putin dropped in on Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka before their meeting in Saint Petersburg on December 29 apparently in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11319\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moscow to deepen its footprint in Belarus under Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk\" 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