{"id":11315,"date":"2021-12-27T03:13:56","date_gmt":"2021-12-27T00:13:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-preparing-unpleasant-surprises-for-neighbors-in-2022\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-preparing-unpleasant-surprises-for-neighbors-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11315\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk preparing unpleasant surprises for neighbors in 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span> <\/span><\/h2>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n By Vadzim Ma\u017eejka, of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>
\n <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n 2021 was a year of counterrevolution in Belarus. Following the 2020 post-election protests, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s regime cracked down on dissidents, civic society and the free media. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t In its foreign policy, Belarus orchestrated a migrant crisis to unsettle its neighbors. Similar attacks are possible in 2022.\n<\/p>\n

Political cycles<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Relations between Minsk and the West have gone through repeated cycles \u2013 political activity in the run-up to presidential elections is followed by government crackdowns and tensions with the West, leading to Minsk\u2019s vulnerability and heavier dependence on Moscow. Then Minsk reverses the crackdown and releases political prisoners to improve relations with the West as a counterweight to Russia. And the same happens before and after the next presidential election.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2008 and 2014, a thaw with the West was prompted by Russia\u2019s clashes with its neighbors Georgia and Ukraine. However, the current build-up of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border is unlikely to present Minsk with a another chance.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The 2015 presidential election did not affect ties between Minsk and the West, so rapprochement continued until 2020.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition\u2019s political campaign triggered a new cycle in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election. At the beginning, Minsk turned its fire on unnamed forces in Russia that it feared were supporting opposition hopefuls Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and Viktar Babaryka. Belarusian security officers arrested about 20 Wagner mercenaries in Belarus shortly before the August vote. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West avoided criticizing the Belarusian authorities at the time. Police arrested Cichano\u016dski on May 29, while the first tanker with US oil arrived in the Port of Klaipeda on June 5. On June 21, a spokesperson for the US Department of State expressed concern about Babaryka\u2019s arrest. The second tanker delivered US oil to Klaipeda on August 9, the main polling day.\n<\/p>\n

New rapprochement unlikely<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The unusually long thaw in internal politics enabled opposition forces to recover before the 2020 presidential election. Police violence in the streets was a thing of the past back then. Authorities targeted only the most outspoken critics. Meanwhile, the successes of private social and business programs fueled demand for similar successes in politics.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The continuing government crackdown exposes the government\u2019s fear of new protests. Luka\u0161enka is clearly not ready for a new cycle of rapprochement with the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A repetition of the cycle would eventually lead to a situation Belarus found itself in 2020. When oppression eases, the public starts to demand change, but this is something the regime is unable to deliver.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Cautious attempts by the Belarusian foreign minister to explore opportunities for negotiations with the European Union have not yielded any result.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities benefited more from migrant crisis escalations \u2013 European leaders phoned Luka\u0161enka and Foreign Minister Makiej, and the European Union provided aid through the Belarusian Red Cross Society. The aid was short of what Minsk expected, but anyway it was a rare foreign policy success in the last 18 months.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Based on lessons learned from the crisis, the EU should take seriously Luka\u0161enka\u2019s threats that Belarus may stop fighting drug, arms and radioactive material smuggling.\n<\/p>\n

Minsk may make concessions to Moscow<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t In 2022, Minsk is to pursue a $3.5 billion loan from the Russian-led Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development, Mikalaj Snapko\u016d, a deputy prime minister, said in 2021. The government intends to use the money to repay around $4 billion in amounts due to foreign creditors.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t To secure the loan, Luka\u0161enka may make minor concessions to Moscow, in particular, he may recognize Crimea as Russia\u2019s territory by visiting the peninsular together with the Russian president. He may also allow Russia to increase its military presence in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Tension with Ukraine, stagnation in relations with China, others<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Minsk\u2019s overtures to Moscow are likely to unsettle Ukraine. Kyiv may respond to Luka\u0161enka\u2019s possible trip to Crimea. However, its sanctions are unlikely to target Belarusian fuel supplies to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Inspired by Ukraine\u2019s inability to hit back, Luka\u0161enka is likely continue attacks on Ukraine, both rhetorical and destabilizing like the migrant crisis. His outbursts and provocations are expected to receive positive coverage in Russia\u2019s government-controlled media and earn him plaudits in the Kremlin.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus\u2019 relations with China are expected to stagnate as Belarus\u2019 reputation as a reliable logistical link between Russia and Europe continues to decline.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Austria\u2019s FELB already offers multimodal China-Europe-China transportation services, advertising routes bypassing Belarus with its unpredictable borders.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Investors will be cautious to put their money in manufacturing projects hosted by the Great Stone Chinese-Belarusian Industrial Park for fear of Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The foreign ministry\u2019s attempts to boost Belarus\u2019 trade with Asian, African and South American countries are unlikely to pay off and offset the souring ties with the EU.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * * *\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2022, Minsk is likely to continue positioning itself as a regional source of instability by creating problems for the European Union and Ukraine. Luka\u0161enka will be encouraging Moscow – both rhetorically and by offering sites for Russian weapons – to ratchet up tension with the West. The policy will not bring Belarusians any benefits.\n<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Vadzim Ma\u017eejka, of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies 2021 was a year of counterrevolution in Belarus. Following the 2020 post-election protests, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s regime cracked down on dissidents, civic society and the free media. In its foreign policy, Belarus orchestrated a migrant crisis to unsettle its neighbors. Similar attacks are possible in 2022. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11315","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk preparing unpleasant surprises for neighbors in 2022 | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Vadzim Ma\u017eejka, of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies 2021 was a year of counterrevolution in Belarus. 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