{"id":11310,"date":"2021-12-21T01:52:42","date_gmt":"2021-12-20T22:52:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/russian-troops-deployment-into-belarus-unlikely-this-winter\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"russian-troops-deployment-into-belarus-unlikely-this-winter","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Aliesin<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the report entitled Putin\u2019s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine released by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). A detailed analysis of the legal framework and political circumstances suggests that fears of Russian troops deployment into Belarus are unfounded. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t The report says that Vladimir Putin has set all the necessary informational and military conditions to deploy Russian troops into Belarus and is simply waiting for what he judges to be the right moment.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A full-scale Russian invasion in Ukraine would consist of discrete operations, including deploying Russian airborne and\/or mechanized units to one or more locations in Belarus that would support a planned attack on Ukraine as well as pose other threats to NATO member states, the AEI says. Putin may put \u201cRussian mechanized units on both sides of the narrow Suwalki Corridor through which NATO supplies and reinforcements to the Baltic States must run,\u201d the forecast says.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>No legal grounds for deployment<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Legal grounds for Russian troops deployment into Belarus seemed to be outside the scope of the AEI\u2019s analysis. However, one must examine the legal framework before making a conclusion on the possibility of a scenario.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Under internationally recognized treaties between Moscow and Minsk, Russian forces may be deployed into Belarus only if it faces a real threat of \u201caggression\u201d or in response \u201cdirect aggression.\u201d Kyiv is wary of Russia and is unlikely to provoke Moscow by attacking Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russian troops arriving in Belarus for military maneuvers can stay there for no longer than two months, and the contingent is subject to limitations set out in Belarusian laws and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Although Russia has suspended its obligations under the CFE treaty, Belarus has not.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin can send troops to Belarus at the request of its military and political leadership under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreements. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka cited CSTO accords when he appealed to Putin for assistance in suppressing post-election protests in August 2020.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The easiest way for Russia to send troops to Belarus would be to have Luka\u0161enka request emergency military assistance. However, he is not necessarily willing to do so.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka preparing for constitutional referendum<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka is unlikely to invite Russian troops if he knows that the force will be used for attacking Ukraine. It is not that he has sympathy for Ukraine or fears of international sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He is busy preparing for a constitutional referendum coming up in about two months, hoping that the plebiscite will help him consolidate his grip on power.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The presence of foreign troops might foil his plans. Belarusians who support Luka\u0161enka as guarantor of sovereignty might simply turn their backs on him.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Moscow prefers to wait for its chance<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Deploying troops into Belarus against Luka\u0161enka\u2019s will would automatically turn Russia into an aggressor and an enemy. Belarus, currently a faithful Russian ally, can fight back.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Now that Minsk has lost Western support, Moscow sees plenty of opportunities to expand its economic and political reach. It prefers cautious and slow incorporation to a quick military invasion.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Besides, Belarus with its swamps and woods is not a good area to launch a large-scale offensive operation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the report entitled Putin\u2019s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine released by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). A detailed analysis of the legal framework and political circumstances suggests that fears of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11310","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\"},\"headline\":\"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-20T22:52:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\"},\"wordCount\":562,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\",\"name\":\"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-20T22:52:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"description\":\"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Pozirk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter | Pozirk","description":"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter | Pozirk","og_description":"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the","og_url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/","og_site_name":"Pozirk","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","article_modified_time":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@Pozirk_online","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/"},"headline":"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter","datePublished":"2021-12-20T22:52:42+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/"},"wordCount":562,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/","name":"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter | Pozirk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2021-12-20T22:52:42+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","description":"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Russia is more likely to deploy troops into Belarus this coming winter than invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine, says the","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11310\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Russian troops deployment into Belarus unlikely this winter"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","name":"Pozirk","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization","name":"Pozirk","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Pozirk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads\/11310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/longreads"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/75"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"rubric","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rubric?post=11310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}