{"id":11309,"date":"2021-12-19T17:29:58","date_gmt":"2021-12-19T14:29:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-regime-has-enough-resources-to-maintain-status-quo\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-regime-has-enough-resources-to-maintain-status-quo","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11309\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian regime has enough resources to maintain status quo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Belarus\u2019 political future is uncertain. It is not yet clear whether Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka will go ahead with a constitutional referendum scheduled for late February. He promised to hold it \u201cif no war is to come.\u201d He seems to whip up hysteria on purpose. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<h2>\n<p>\n <span>Referendum intended to bolster Luka\u0161enka\u2019s legitimacy <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span> <\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The continuing crackdown on civil society and free media is unlikely to expand the Belarusian ruler\u2019s support base and ease public discontent, which may boil over into a new wave of protests as soon as an opportunity arises for his opponents to strike back.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A reset of the political system \u2013 the redistribution of powers between the branches of power \u2013 could have improved the regime\u2019s resilience.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin seems to be encouraging Luka\u0161enka to follow through with constitutional reform.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, Luka\u0161enka is not as meticulous about the rules as Vladimir Putin. He has defied laws for 27 years and advised prosecutors last year to do the same.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A constitutional referendum could add Luka\u0161enka legitimacy at least in the eyes of Moscow and Beijing, which rhetorically back him but are unwilling to invest heavily in his regime\u2019s future.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Potential Russian investors would like to have some guarantees. A pro-Russian parliamentary faction with a controlling stake could be a sort of assurance.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It would be possible to provide the guarantees if the following conditions were met:\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\n\t\t more powers are given to the legislature, including to make the government accountable to the parliament\n\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n\t\t pro-Russian politicians are given parliamentary seats\n\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\n\t\t Luka\u0161enka stops meddling in the country\u2019s operating management\n\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t Meeting these conditions would benefit the Kremlin but could unsettle the ruling regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It would energize the legislature, a dormant institution similar to the Soviet parliament, and end Luka\u0161enka\u2019s monopoly on building relations with the Kremlin. The Kremlin would be able to influence Belarusian officials directly. And most importantly, Luka\u0161enka\u2019s role in Belarus would diminish.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Can Assembly help Luka\u0161enka stay in control?<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka on December 2 ambiguously described the planned constitutional changes in an interview with Dmitry Kisilev of Rossiya Segodnya. On the one hand, he noted that the government and the parliament will play a greater role, while the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly will address the most pressing and important issues. But he added, &#8220;The president will appoint the government as he does today, he will be the head of state, and the presidency will remain strong.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He does not seem to plan a transition from the presidential to a parliamentary republic. Officials have not yet published the constitutional proposals. Luka\u0161enka had promised that the draft constitution will be made public before the end of 2021.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly will approve the country\u2019s strategy, program documents, propose constitutional changes, confirm the members of the central election commission, the Constitutional and Supreme Courts, and decide on impeachment motions against the president, said Aliaksandr \u0160pako\u016dski, a member of the team that drafts the constitution, in his article posted on <span>Mlyn<\/span>.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The assembly will also have the power to annul government decisions, laws and regulations that run counter to national security interests, he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has defied the rule of law since 1996 after he awarded himself with the power to rule by decree. If the assembly is empowered to annul laws, it will be a sign that the center of power may shift from the president to the assembly leader.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The assembly would not be \u201can operational management agency,\u201d would not replace the government and the parliament, which would keep functioning on the permanent basis, \u0160pako\u016dski said, and added that the assembly would meet at least once a year and its delegates would \u201cbe elected without discontinuing their work and service.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If so, only the permanent assembly bodies \u2013 the chairmanship and the heads of commissions \u2013 would have an influence.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Seats on the assembly would be awarded automatically to the incumbent president and his\/her predecessor as well as to executive branch officials, lawmakers, judges, local elected officials and \u201cnominees from civil society organizations,\u201d state media reported.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Based on reports, the assembly can be either window-dressing or a safety mechanism.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>\u201cIf no war is to come\u201d<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Asked by Kisilev if the referendum will be held in February, Luka\u0161enka replied, \u201cIf no war is to come.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t State propaganda has been promoting the narrative that Russia and Belarus are surrounded by enemies and has played up a threat from NATO, and especially its ally Poland.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cI don\u2019t want Rzeczpospolita od morza do morza, as our neighbors say. What do they want? They want whole Belarus incorporated in Poland! It won\u2019t happen. This is our country,\u201d Luka\u0161enka said during his visit to Viciebsk on December 15.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin is also engaged in sabre-rattling for its own reasons.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka would be happy if war started in the region, Gleb Pavlovsky, a Russian political analyst, said on December 17 in an interview with the Dozhd television network.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If he sees Russia dragging its feet, \u201che will take the initiative, I assure you,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Opponents\u2019 options are limited<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Opponents have called on voters to come to the polls to spoil ballots with referendum questions. The tactic has been supported by Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s camp and Paviel Latu\u0161ka\u2019s People\u2019s Anti-Crisis Management.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It has never been tested in Belarus and may not work without independent observation.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka is trying to create a win-win situation. If voters turn down the new constitution, he will be happy with the current \u201cauthoritarian\u201d one, as he said at his meeting with officials in the Viciebsk region on December 15.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The regime has enough resources to maintain the status quo in the face of Western sanctions. Opponents have not yet recovered from the continuing crackdowns and are not in a position to challenge Luka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Nevertheless, uncertainty over regional security and the regime\u2019s heavy reliance on Moscow for support make Luka\u0161enka quite vulnerable and breakable.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski Belarus\u2019 political future is uncertain. It is not yet clear whether Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka will go ahead with a constitutional referendum scheduled for late February. He promised to hold it \u201cif no war is to come.\u201d He seems to whip up hysteria on purpose. Referendum intended to bolster Luka\u0161enka\u2019s legitimacy The continuing crackdown [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11309","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarusian regime has enough resources to maintain status quo | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski Belarus\u2019 political future is uncertain. 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