{"id":113003,"date":"2024-11-08T12:13:31","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T09:13:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/113003\/"},"modified":"2024-11-08T12:13:33","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T09:13:33","slug":"how-will-trumps-victory-impact-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/113003\/","title":{"rendered":"How will Trump’s victory impact Belarus?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 6, Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, along with many other global leaders, were quick to congratulate him. However, Trump’s presidency is likely to leave both of them disappointed.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Wikimedia Commons)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka sees no hope for better relations with Washington, regardless of the outcome<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk had hoped for a reset of relations with Washington by backing Trump during the presidential race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian pro-democracy politicians, on the other hand, refrained from expressing preferences, aiming to maintain good relations with whichever administration came to power. Trump’s second term is likely to disappoint both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the election, Belarusian MP and propagandist Vadzim Hihin expressed reservations about both Kamala Harris and Trump. Still, he noted that the Republican impressed him with his assertiveness. Hihin admired his ability to withstand pressure and threats, which, according to him, made Trump stand out among Western leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This shift in perspective reflects a change in Minsk\u2019s outlook. While \u0141uka\u0161enka was enthusiastic about Trump last year, his tone has been more reserved this year. Nevertheless, officials in Minsk remain cautiously optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Implications of Trump’s victory for Belarus’ regime<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s support for Trump appears emotionally driven: both men are of a similar age, both are populists, both share disdain for liberal democracy and both are widely seen as sexist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Minsk, Harris represents the embodiment of \u201cWestern globalism.\u201d Belarusian officials feared that a Harris presidency would increase support for the pro-democracy opposition, seeing Trump as the lesser evil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Belarusian relations soured under President Joe Biden, while ties showed slight improvement during Trump\u2019s first term. Notably, Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk in 2019 and 2020 to try to pull Belarus away from Russia and bring it closer to the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These visits provided \u0141uka\u0161enka with some diplomatic room to maneuver, enabling him to assert a degree of independence from Moscow. However, the quality of relations did not substantially improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the current circumstances, any diplomatic efforts aimed at distancing Belarus from Russia are unlikely to succeed, as the country\u2019s dependence on Moscow has reached a critical point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The incoming US administration will likely deprioritize Belarus as a region under Russian influence and an ally of China, the United States\u2019 primary global rival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington\u2019s stance on Belarus and any potential sanctions relief will be determined more by the state of US-Russian and US-Chinese relations than by Minsk’s actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While criticism of the Belarusian authorities over human rights abuses will continue, it is likely to be more measured and formal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the event of peace talks regarding Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka may be allowed to participate only as an ally of Moscow and Beijing, rather than as an independent actor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition politicians cautiously optimistic<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the 2020 uprising, Belarusian pro-democracy forces established strong ties with the Biden administration. Cichano\u016dskaja, the pro-democracy leader, was even invited to the White House in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States maintains sanctions on Belarus, calling for the release of political prisoners and continuing to criticize the Belarusian regime for its human rights violations. Under Biden, Washington has treated Belarus as a sovereign state, emphasizing the potential for a future democratic transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Had Harris won, that policy would likely have continued. But with Trump back in office, it will be harder for the pro-democracy movement to capture his attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a comment to Pozirk<\/em> about the US election results, Franak Via\u010dorka, Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s advisor, expressed hope for continued US support. However, he also acknowledged the challenge of persuading Trump to prioritize democratic values in his foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s decisions will likely be guided by political and economic expediency, and he will back political forces that have tangible influence. Cichano\u016dskaja and her team have little to offer Trump, who views international politics as a form of big business and, unlike Biden, has little interest in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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