{"id":111816,"date":"2024-10-30T13:52:28","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T10:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/111816\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"fear-and-resistance-belarusian-opposition-mulls-tactics-for-election-labeled-a-sham","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/111816\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear and resistance: Belarusian opposition mulls tactics for election labeled a sham"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Authorities are rushing to hold \u201cAlaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s re-election,\u201d with only days remaining to register signature-collection groups before the November 1 deadline. In the environment of fear, various strategies are being proposed by opposition figures, including a boycott, voting against all candidates, or supporting fringe candidates to create a “spoiler” effect.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Pozirk file photo)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s full backing for \u0141uka\u0161enka<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Juryj Hubarevi\u010d, the only opposition politician to submit paperwork for registering a signature-collection group, had his application immediately rejected. The central election commission stated that the exiled politician should have submitted it in person or sent it with someone holding a power of attorney.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hubarevi\u010d coordinates the New Belarus Talent Pool, which Belarusian authorities have designated as an extremist group. He would have been arrested immediately if he had shown up in person.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commentators have no doubt that the election outcome is predetermined; they are merely speculating why the vote is scheduled for January 21-26, five months before the deadline set by law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Moscow has \u201cblessed\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka for a new term. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said that Russia fully supports the incumbent, while Russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov promised that Moscow would send security forces to assist Belarusian police in quelling any unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is eager to move past the tumultuous events of 2020 as quickly as possible. Several reasons may underlie this urgency, including concerns about his health, anxiety stemming from the 2020 experience, the potential for economic growth to slow soon and regional uncertainty due to the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the incumbent, MP Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d has predictably announced his candidacy. However, he should not be taken seriously, as he is already campaigning in support of \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ihar Karpenka, the top election official, indicated that three or four names are expected to appear on the ballot, suggesting that two additional fringe candidates may be registered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka acknowledges fraud but sees no issue<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent interview with Izvestiya<\/em>, \u0141uka\u0161enka admitted that local authorities might have manipulated results in 2020 to enhance the reported figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOK, suppose they [added] three percent\u2014so [my real tally] was not 82 but 78 percent. Suppose [they added] five percent; then I really won 75 percent. Nobody questions my victory,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have actually questioned his victory, he has deployed his well-trained security forces to silence dissent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His remarks underscore that local authorities, not independent election commissions, control the electoral process and manipulate the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials have made it abundantly clear that no opposition members will be admitted to election commissions or allowed to observe the voting process. The participation of genuine opposition members in the race is out of the question; the only uncertainty remains regarding the percentage that \u0141uka\u0161enka will award himself in a landslide victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some commentators speculate that he may demand more than 87 percent to surpass Vladimir Putin\u2019s result in the 2024 election, while others suggest he may opt for a lower percentage in hopes of presenting a more palatable result to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Election as a special operation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the mass protests of 2020, authorities are exercising caution, treating the elections as a special military operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interior Minister Ivan Kubrako\u016d described the upcoming poll as a \u201ctest\u201d for the police and announced a series of drills beginning in November, including training for hostage rescue and defending government buildings from protesters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials appear to anticipate a major attack from the opposition, exercising excessive caution after the protests spiraled out of control in 2020. Additionally, some law enforcement and government officials are eager to demonstrate their commitment to keeping the leader satisfied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The election cycle is extremely short\u2014campaigning is scheduled to begin on January 1 and will be permitted until January 25. In early January, most Belarusians will be on holiday for the New Year and may not pay close attention to politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition tactics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja has urged Belarusians to vote against all candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zianon Pa\u017aniak\u2019s Free Belarus is calling for a boycott, while political commentator Alaksandar Knyrovi\u010d has suggested voting for Hajdukievi\u010d as a spoiler, based on Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny\u2019s smart voting tactic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although opponents are confident that the votes will not be counted, they hope that a significant number of votes against all could demoralize officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Boycott advocates argue that participating in the election will only assist the government in creating a \u201cnice picture\u201d of high voter turnout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those suggesting a vote for Hajdukievi\u010d believe this tactic would enable opposition supporters to campaign legally against \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is hard to envision anyone in Belarus voting for Hajdukievi\u010d, especially after he said that he wants \u201cenemies of the state\u201d to \u201cbe sickened by any candidate in this election.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The vote-against-all proposal may disappoint opposition supporters in the country. Some may argue that this tactic is futile because votes are not counted anyway, while others may be concerned for their safety, as police could install hidden cameras to identify those who vote \u201cagainst all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Self-preservation or pro-active position?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the atmosphere of fear, effective tactics are hard to come by, noted historian Alaksandar Pa\u0161kievi\u010d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He emphasized that opponents should prioritize self-preservation to emerge from this \u201cspecial operation\u201d with minimal losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Cichano\u016dskaja team has taken a proactive stance, attempting to demonstrate to the West that the election is a sham and must be denied international recognition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, their efforts do not seem to deter \u0141uka\u0161enka, who will likely continue to persecute those who challenge his rule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"