{"id":110466,"date":"2024-10-21T19:45:30","date_gmt":"2024-10-21T16:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110466\/"},"modified":"2024-10-21T19:45:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-21T16:45:32","slug":"belarus-after-lukasenka-five-successors-discussed","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110466\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus after \u0141uka\u0161enka: five successors discussed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka does not intend to step down in 2025, but his seventh term could signal the start of a transition, during which Belarus may see a new leader. Officials being discussed as potential candidates to replace him include D\u017amitryj Krutoj and Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d, with Krutoj seen as the favorite.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0141uka\u0161enka frequently speaks about a future successor. The 2022 constitutional amendments introduced a mechanism allowing him to pull strings as chairman of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, even if he steps down as head of state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is reluctant to leave office due to personal ambitions, concerns about his family\u2019s security, international tensions and the threat that Belarus may be drawn into Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, the Kremlin has little interest in a change of leadership in Belarus, given its bad experience with Kazakhstan, where Moscow lost a dependable and predictable ally in Nursultan Nazarbayev.
\u0141uka\u0161enka discussed succession at a meeting with students in Minsk on September 27. While he praised his officials, he did not single out anyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s statements and how they were reported by state media, several potential candidates for the role can be identified. They are: Natalla Ka\u010danava, chairwoman of the Council of the Republic; Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka; Chairman of the Committee for State Security Ivan Tertel; Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d; and D\u017amitryj Krutoj, head of the \u0141uka\u0161enka administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krutoj<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seems to be looking for a young, resolute and loyal figure\u2014a sort of “\u0141uka\u0161enka 2.0.” Krutoj, 42, a native of the Mahilo\u016d region, is seen as the frontrunner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krutoj has built a solid career in the government and administration, and the Kremlin also appears to be satisfied with his performance as ambassador to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time will tell whether he can meet his boss\u2019s expectations and succeed in a complex political and economic environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At 52, Ry\u017eanko\u016d has several strengths, including his foreign policy experience, which is hard to match, and his long service in the \u0141uka\u0161enka administration. As foreign minister, he has been tasked with improving Belarus’ strained relations with the West, though little progress has been made in that regard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


While \u0141uka\u0161enka holds Ry\u017eanko\u016d in high esteem, his lack of notable achievements, his Minsk roots (which the Belarusian leader considers a weakness), his Polish connections and his age all work against him.

Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prime Minister Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, 51, has shown remarkable skill in navigating the country\u2019s economic challenges, particularly during the crises of 2020 and 2022. With extensive experience in both management and politics, he is widely regarded as the most suitable candidate for the role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, his professionalism and strong ties to Russia (he graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations) are a concern for \u0141uka\u0161enka, who would likely prefer a more pliable figure. Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, on the other hand, may appear too independent.

Tertel<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ivan Tertel, 58, chairman of the KGB, is another potential candidate. Being a native of Belarus, he is eligible to run, unlike Russian-born State Security Council Secretary Alaksandar Valfovi\u010d. \u0141uka\u0161enka has long relied on his security agencies, particularly the KGB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tertel is a pro-Russian figure, which would likely earn him Moscow\u2019s support. However, handing over power to the seasoned KGB chief could be risky for \u0141uka\u0161enka, who might quickly find himself sidelined.

Ka\u010danava<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natalla Ka\u010danava stands out for her unwavering loyalty among those close to \u0141uka\u0161enka. An experienced figure, she was often viewed as a potential successor in the early 2020s. She has served as deputy prime minister, head of the Belarusian leader\u2019s administration and speaker of the upper parliamentary chamber since 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, her career may soon be in decline. In 2030, Ka\u010danava will be 70, while \u0141uka\u0161enka is likely to seek a younger candidate. Moreover, given his well-known sexism, Ka\u010danava is unlikely to remain among the top contenders by the end of 2024.

Sons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In some former Soviet countries, such as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, authoritarian leaders have transferred power to their sons. This is not an option for \u0141uka\u0161enka. His sons Viktar and D\u017amitryj are not heavily involved in politics, and Mika\u0142aj, at 26, will not be eligible to run for president in 2030 when his father is barred by the two-term limit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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