{"id":110374,"date":"2024-10-21T12:06:32","date_gmt":"2024-10-21T09:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110374\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukashenka-on-the-stump-as-opposition-mulls-strategy","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110374\/","title":{"rendered":"Lukashenka on the stump as opposition mulls strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s re-election campaign is in full swing as he steps up informal visits to villages and small towns to give the campaign a more personal and down-to-earth feel. Meanwhile, his exiled opponents are still discussing their strategy for the upcoming election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Minsk\u2013Vilnius train\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (onliner.by)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka courts traditional supporters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is working hard to retain his traditional supporters. During a meeting with officials on October 15, he emphasized that the Belarusian economy is in a strong position to provide increased support for the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He suggested lifting the caps on retirement benefits for those who wish to continue working past retirement age and making the process of obtaining benefits simpler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On other occasions, he commended villagers at the annual harvest festivals in Korma and Mika\u0161evi\u010dy for their role in the country\u2019s economic development in the 1990s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also held several meetings with youth and students.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the government has launched a Unity Marathon, a series of concerts and rallies across the country designed to rally support for the incumbent. A themed concert in Ma\u0142adzie\u010dna, Minsk region, on October 12 featured \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s youngest child at the piano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Election date uncertainty<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

BelPol, an association of former Belarusian law enforcement officers, claimed in August that the government planned to hold the election early, on February 23. However, some commentators argued that this is unlikely, given that the election date must be announced at least five months before the poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Electoral Code stipulates that the election must be scheduled no later than five months and occur no later than two months before \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s presidential term expires on September 23, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the entire presidential election cycle can be condensed to less than three months, which gives the government some flexibility. In November, the House of Representatives can still schedule the election for February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2006, for example, the government held the election in March instead of July to prevent the opposition from mobilizing supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there were legal opposition parties and movements in the country at that time, the political landscape is now devoid of real opposition, and pro-democracy forces have shown no intention of mobilizing for protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the authorities\u2019 warnings about potential disruptions to the electoral process, these appear to be more ritualistic threats. After the massive protests of summer 2020, the government is likely to prefer holding the election during the colder months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials may opt for an earlier date due to the war in Ukraine and Russian drone incursions. \u0141uka\u0161enka can capitalize on his image as the “protector of peaceful skies” during the campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the economy is growing, incomes are rising and Russian financial support has helped cushion the impact of Western sanctions. Critics may point to imbalances, but for now, ordinary Belarusians see little cause for concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition faces challenges in formulating a viable strategy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office, in collaboration with the United Transitional Cabinet and the Coordination Council, is discussing its strategy for the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition is likely to call on its supporters to vote “against all candidates.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If adopted, this strategy would echo the 2022 referendum, when voters were encouraged to spoil their ballots. However, this did not harm the regime in any meaningful way. A boycott is considered an even less effective tactic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The idea of supporting a “spoiler candidate” likely to be registered by the authorities may be misguided. While it could boost voter turnout, it is unlikely to change the outcome of the election. Moreover, such a strategy risks alienating pro-democracy voters and is unlikely to be well-received in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition\u2019s push for additional sanctions is also becoming a hard sell. These sanctions have not weakened the regime over the past four years and seem to be unpopular among Belarusians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition leaders hope that the recent International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka, requested by Lithuania, may unsettle the elite. However, the regime has shown resilience and is unlikely to falter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the elite remained loyal in 2020, it is improbable that an external setback will sow divisions now. Furthermore, the likelihood of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s arrest remains low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro-democracy politicians have yet to offer a compelling message for the domestic audience. Their campaign for \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s international non-recognition after the election does not seem to trouble him much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Belarusians queuing at the border due to tighter controls and border crossing closures would appreciate it if the opposition took more action to facilitate mobility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, a Warsaw-based opposition politician advocating for an arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka, recently stated that the Belarusian ruler\u2019s train had left for The Hague, where the ICC is based.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former Belarusian diplomat Pavie\u0142 Macukievi\u010d is more skeptical. He argued that the only way to get from Belarus to the EU is now by bus and suggested that train links with Warsaw or Vilnius would be far more beneficial for ordinary people than an arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite opposition leaders’ assurances of Belarusians’ European aspirations, an iron curtain is descending. Pro-democracy activists may be unable to “jump over their belts,” but they should at least reconsider their rhetoric, which is increasingly disconnected from the public\u2019s grievances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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