{"id":110170,"date":"2024-10-19T11:24:19","date_gmt":"2024-10-19T08:24:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110170\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"from-populism-to-dictatorship-how-lukasenka-consolidated-power","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110170\/","title":{"rendered":"From populism to dictatorship: how \u0141uka\u0161enka consolidated power"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Twenty years ago, the central election commission claimed that nearly 80 percent of Belarusian voters approved Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka’s indefinite re-election at the referendum held on October 17, 2004. The referendum removed another obstacle to his unchallenged power, although the authoritarian system had already been firmly established following two previous controversial plebiscites.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Belarusian leader's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Democratic tools used to install dictatorship<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka held a constitutional referendum in 1995 to elevate Russian to a state language, replace the national emblem and flag with Soviet-style symbols and secure voters’ approval for closer economic ties with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition MPs went on a hunger strike to protest these proposals, but the Belarusian ruler sent riot police to beat them and evict them from the parliament building.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following referendum in 1996 undermined the system of checks and balances, and the subsequent attempt by parliament to impeach \u0141uka\u0161enka failed after Moscow threw its weight behind the pro-Russian leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The emerging dictator awarded himself sweeping powers and disbanded the Supreme Soviet, which had attempted to resist, replacing it with a pliable National Assembly. Protests against his rule failed to gain momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During perestroika, people hoped that transparent elections and referenda would guarantee a fair political process. However, in practice, democracy also depends on voters’ political maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winning over voters with pay hikes and repression<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

By 2004, it was clear that \u0141uka\u0161enka was in for the long haul as head of state. His political longevity is attributed to voters\u2019 desire for the stability he promised in the 1994 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Populism, including promises of wage increases, helped \u0141uka\u0161enka maintain his popularity from one election to the next. While the opposition pressed for democracy, most voters preferred his steady hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the time social spending began to shrink and Belarusians began asking questions about their political rights, \u0141uka\u0161enka had already built a system of total repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, peaceful protests were fueled by public discontent with his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Having learned from his previous mistakes, he began his re-election campaign early this year with community events such as harvest festivals in the countryside and student meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electoral fraud and efforts to thwart democratic power transfer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Two decades ago, the \u0141uka\u0161enka government maintained the fa\u00e7ade of democracy. At the time, the Independent Institute for Social, Economic, and Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted opinion polls in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central election commission claimed that 79.42 percent of voters supported \u0141uka\u0161enka running for president without term limits in the 2004 referendum. However, IISEPS polls found that only 49 percent were in favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pollsters noted that election fraud ranged from 20 to 30 percent during elections. Not surprisingly, the institute was eventually forced to shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most recent constitutional referendum in 2022 expanded the powers of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, which is chaired by \u0141uka\u0161enka. It was largely ignored by voters who staged protests against the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now the regime can be categorized as semi-totalitarian. Incidentally, the 2022 referendum restored the two-term limit for presidents, formally reversing the 2004 decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the repressive apparatus in place, it is easy for \u0141uka\u0161enka to manipulate the constitution. Nothing can stop him from lifting the term limit again or rewriting the constitution to benefit one of his sons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Western democracies, which limit their leaders to two terms, authoritarian leaders often seek to remove any constraints on their power, and Belarus is a glaring example of the consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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