{"id":108156,"date":"2024-10-07T09:52:45","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T06:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/108156\/"},"modified":"2024-10-07T09:52:47","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T06:52:47","slug":"safeguards-against-dictatorship-germanys-lessons-for-belarusians","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/108156\/","title":{"rendered":"Safeguards against dictatorship: Germany\u2019s lessons for Belarusians"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 2020 postelection protests, reprisals and emigration have polarized Belarusian society. Reducing polarization will be a key challenge in the post-\u0141uka\u0161enka era. A new government must choose between \u201cmoving on\u201d and working through the past.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Ri Butov \/ pixabay.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

October 3 marked 34 years since Germany reunited after the World War II partition. The Federal Republic of Germany was a democracy and a member of NATO, while the German Democratic Republic was a socialist dictatorship. Before 1990, approximately four million East Germans had relocated to the West. The trend continued after the fall of communism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cautious lustration and open Stasi archives<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the last three decades, East Germany has followed through with comprehensive economic, social, and political transformation. The GDR\u2019s appeal is gradually declining, particularly among younger people who view the socialist era as a distant historical period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party and left-wing populists from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is a cause for concern, claims of a new societal divide and an erosion of democratic institutions in the East are exaggerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was important that the GDR leaders responsible for rights abuses were held accountable. To hold official positions in the unified German state, officials were vetted for any collaboration with the Stasi and involvement in crime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Stasi archives were made available for the public. Germany\u2019s lustration was selective and less radical than in some other former socialist countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Belarus, Germany could be a reference point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Permanent exile<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After the reunification, most East Germans who left the GDR never returned home; many of them settled down the West. Prospects there were brighter despite rising living standards in the East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus has not yet begun to change, and its emigrants gradually settle down abroad. The longer transformation is delayed, the fewer will return. The nation loses its human resources but this process also presents an opportunity: the Belarusian diaspora can support the Europeanization and democratization after the fall of the dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving on fraught with contradictions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After the 2020 protests were suppressed, moving on has been the key message coming out of Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite all the official talk of unity, the authorities are still persecuting their opponents. Many have been forced out of the country because the government refuses to listen. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s idea of unity is loyalty to him and a complete ban on dissent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unity facade hides unresolved contradictions, conflicts, thirst for revenge and hate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka knows that opening up politics would be the end of his career, so he is not going to make any major changes. Sooner or later, however, he will have to relinquish power because of his age and health. Top officials in his entourage have the best chance of assuming positions of authority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case, no radical changes should be expected in Belarus, and under the hardline leadership the country would resemble Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan. Transition to democracy would be difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, Belarusians generally crave for democracy, so a softer \u0141uka\u0161ism without \u0141uka\u0161enka could facilitate transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risks of ignoring polarization<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During and after transition Belarus will face serious political, social and economic challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While GDR transformation was funded by West Germany, Belarus cannot count on such large-scale external support. For this reason, a new government may be reluctant to work through the \u0141uka\u0161enka legacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This would be a serious and potentially fatal mistake. Coming to terms with the past is essential for overcoming internal conflicts and establishing a democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The removal of disreputable officials from public administration, investigations, punishment, public access to the Committee for State Security archives and dialogue on important issues are safeguards against dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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