{"id":106476,"date":"2024-09-25T11:38:56","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T08:38:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/106476\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenkas-meeting-with-pushilin-underscores-his-dependence-on-kremlin","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/106476\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s meeting with Pushilin underscores his dependence on Kremlin"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The September 19 Minsk visit by the Moscow-installed leader of the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, placed Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in a difficult situation. He welcomed the guest while simultaneously stressing his willingness to cooperate with Ukraine. The meeting demonstrated \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s dependence on the Kremlin and subservience to his masters.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Claire Thibault \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On September 17, \u0141uka\u0161enka emphasized Belarus\u2019 independence at a grand rally on National Unity Day but two days later he met with Pushilin, a separatist leader commonly referred to as a Kremlin puppet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After their previous meeting, Kyiv recalled its ambassador from Minsk. Meanwhile, at this moment it is important for \u0141uka\u0161enka to prove to Ukraine and the West that he still has a degree of independence from Moscow and some room for political maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka eager to take part in Ukraine peace talks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is looking for a way to get involved in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. On September 17, he said he was frustrated with the opposition’s attempt to prosecute him in the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An international arrest warrant could prevent him from taking part in Ukraine negotiations. The ICC has already issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin following an investigation into war crimes and genocide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those pushing for \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s prosecution accuse him of complicity in illegal transfers of children from occupied Ukrainian territories. The case is being investigated by Lithuania at the Belarusian opposition\u2019s request. As a Rome Statute party, Lithuania is eligible to file cases with the ICC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the meeting with Pushilin, \u0141uka\u0161enka denied the accusations, noting that Belarus hosts children for treatment and vacations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seems willing to engage with West<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader seemed to be interested in dealings with the West in the last few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late July, he appointed Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d as foreign minister; Natalla Piatkievi\u010d, who lived in the United States for a long time, as deputy head of his administration; and propagandist Marat Marka\u016d as information minister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In summer, \u0141uka\u0161enka seemed to be considering the possibility of a reconciliation with Ukraine. He toned down his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and reined in propagandists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk might be behind a summer decrease in attempts by migrants to cross from Belarus into Poland illegally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On September 18, the foreign ministry spokesman, Anatol H\u0142az, suggested that the Belarus and EU could hold talks on ways to combat illegal migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d said earlier this month that Minsk planned to host an international conference on migration November, expressing hope that EU officials would take part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negotiations are under way behind the scenes between Minsk and Warsaw for the release of Andrzej Poczobut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear that his generals engage with Kyiv behind the scenes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In July, \u0141uka\u0161enka withdrew troops from the southern border to reduce tension, but ordered his forces to return to their positions after Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia\u2019s Kursk province.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian drone flights over Belarus also worry the Belarusian ruler. \u0141uka\u0161enka indicated that he had an agreement with Ukraine not to highlight such incidents in the media, so there must be a channel of communication between the two countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tension over election fraud allegations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pushilin visited Minsk to attend a meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) election officials, media reported. Addressing its participants, the Belarusian leader said the West must not have a say on how elections are organized in the CIS, noting that polls should be held under national laws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also reflected on the role of foreign election observers, suggesting that their participation depends on agreements with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He does not plan to hold a democratic election next year, but wants to be perceived as a legitimate head of state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2025 presidential race is likely to be a stage-managed ritual with nothing to be left for chance or surprise. Big protests against fraud are unlikely in the current repressive environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West has been critical of Belarusian elections for three decades of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rule, but it was not until 2020 that it refused to recognize him as Belarus\u2019 president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk is hoping to get the relationship back to the default tolerance of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk expects response to release of political prisoners<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s trump card is political prisoners. Since July, around 120 prisoners have been released in an apparent attempt by Minsk to reach out to the West. The most prominent political figures remain behind bars, some of them are held incommunicado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West must reciprocate, the pro-government camp says. Propagandist Juryj Vaskrasienski made it clear that \u0141uka\u0161enka might pardon more prisoners in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the West is unlikely to ease restriction, given Belarus\u2019 role in Russia\u2019s war of aggression against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka and his team are considering scenarios in anticipation of Donald Trump\u2019s possible victory in the US presidential race and possible peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv. The West is seeking a resolution to the conflict, so the situation might change very quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, political prisoners are a dilemma for the West: should it take a firm stand or negotiate to save people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, \u0141uka\u0161enka is too dependent on Moscow and hardly able to pursue improved ties with the EU and the United States. He may be just hoping that the West will tolerate him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While officials in Minsk claim that pro-democracy groups plan to stir up unrest during the election, the best opposition leaders can do is to persuade Western politicians to deny \u0141uka\u0161enka recognition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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