{"id":104263,"date":"2024-09-10T12:42:35","date_gmt":"2024-09-10T09:42:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/104263\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"lukasenkas-security-promise-falters-as-drone-attacks-escalate","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/104263\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka’s security promise falters as drone attacks escalate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With most opponents in exile or prison, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka prepares for a presidential election scheduled for 2025. However, emerging military threats are a growing concern for the regime.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Ukrainian Armed Forces)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

War comes to Belarus?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As Belarus gears up for the presidential poll, the Belarusian ruler is unlikely to leave anything to chance or surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the United States or France, where election outcome can be unpredictable, \u0141uka\u0161enka may be looking into the future with confidence because his potential rivals have long been in jail or exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has not yet formally announced his bid, but experts are certain that his name will be on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The election might be held early, on February 23, said BelPol, an association of former Belarusian law enforcement officers, noting that \u0141uka\u0161enka seeks to capitalize on economic growth to get re-elected before a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war is a major concern to the public as Russian attack drones fly over Belarus with alarming regularity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regime unwillingly breaks silence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Drone incursions have been reported by Ukrainian and independent Belarusian media since July, prompting a strong-worded statement from opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two days later, on August 10, \u0141uka\u0161enka accused Kyiv of violating his country\u2019s airspace and redeployed Belarusian troops to the southern border. Many saw his move as an attempt to please Moscow against the backdrop of Ukrainian troops\u2019 advance in Russia\u2019s Kursk province.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On September 5, the Belarusian defense ministry reported that air defenses downed some drones, without specifying where they came from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media reported that at least one Russian attack UAV was shot down over Homiel and its wreckage fell on a warehouse, causing fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No casualties were reported, but the image of Belarus as a peaceful country, promoted by the government for decades, has declined dramatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Totalitarian security narrative shaken by drones<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russian drones may be making incursions accidentally due to target aiming mistakes, or Russians may be deliberately flying UAVs over Belarus to prompt the ally to take action against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even supporters of the government do not buy \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s claim that Ukraine is planning to attack Belarus. Kyiv does not stand to benefit from a clash with Minsk, so this narrative makes little sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever the real reason, war is approaching, and people in Homiel have already felt it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict has moved closer to the Belarusian border, with Russia attacking northern Ukrainian cities and Ukraine holding positions in the Kursk province and attempting to enter the neighboring Bryansk province. It is hard to predict what tomorrow will bring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is understandably worried about it, as testified by his silence on the Homiel incident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He might be trying to persuade the Kremlin to make sure that Russian operators aim their strikes with greater precision without flying drones over Belarus.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If attack UAVs keep flying over Belarus, public anxiety will make it difficult for \u0141uka\u0161enka to pitch himself as a security guarantor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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