{"id":100254,"date":"2024-08-13T10:29:56","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T07:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/100254\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-gears-up-for-election-as-cichanouskaja-declared-national-leader-until-his-exit","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/100254\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka gears up for election as Cichano\u016dskaja declared \u2018national leader\u2019 until his exit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja is determined to lead the opposition after the 2025 presidential election and convince the public that she is more legitimate than Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Margot l\u2019Hermite \/ Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s website)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka claims to be physically fit<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader, speaking on August 2 in Prudok, Mazyr district, dispelled rumors about his health, admitting that he had trouble walking because of joint pain, but said that otherwise he feels fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it is impossible to verify his claim, with access to modern health care he can stay in power for many years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He seems to be planning to run in the next year\u2019s presidential election, since there are no signs of a promotional campaign for his eldest son, Viktar, or any other potential bidder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observers speculate that he may call an early election \u2013 for February or March instead of July \u2013 hoping that cold weather would discourage his opponents from taking part in street protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past, large protests against election fraud were held in Belarus even in extremely cold weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is clear to the opponents forced out of the country that it will be difficult to become involved in the 2025 presidential campaign in any way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s camp stated in Platform 2025 \u2013 a strategy paper adopted last week at the New Belarus 2024 conference in Vilnius \u2013 that its goal is to make sure that \u0141uka\u0161enka will not gain international recognition after the election that is likely to be rigged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition no longer prioritizes change in Belarus. Instead, it just seeks to convince Belarusians and the international community that Cichano\u016dskaja is more legitimate than \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja ready to lead until fair election<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team has been criticized for proclaiming the former presidential hopeful national leader until a democratic presidential election in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critics say that Cichano\u016dskaja and her associates simply copy \u0141uka\u0161enka by creating a presidential office in exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The comparison is far-fetched. The protocol simply specifies the roles and powers of key opposition bodies to avoid overlapping functions and a conflict of interest. Its adoption is just an attempt by the Cichano\u016dskaja office to prevent the Coordinating Council from sowing discord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One can sneer at the term \u201cnational leader,\u201d but it makes sense for Cichano\u016dskaja to solidify her status as opposition leader regardless of what happens in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The declaration demonstrates to Western diplomats that she is set to remain their point of contact for discussions on Belarus policies. Cichano\u016dskaja is well-known and respected, and no other opposition politician has such influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Vilnius protocol, however, is unlikely to have any effect on the perception of Cichano\u016dskaja in Belarusian society. Inside Belarus, new realities increasingly overshadow the 2020 uprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Western politicians, too, those events become less relevant, and the importance of Belarus diminishes, which is likely to affect Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s stature over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this will also depend on the pro-democracy movement\u2019s strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defeatism or disruptive idea?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Politician Andrej Jahora\u016d created a stir at the Vilnius conference by saying that more Belarusians consider \u0141uka\u0161enka their legitimate leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no way the opposition or the West can hold \u0141uka\u0161enka accountable for holding on to power, he said. Against all odds, sanctions have failed, while Western governments also have refused to recognize exiled pro-democracy groups as an alternative government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jahora\u016d suggested that the Belarusian opposition should try a different approach to secure the release of political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The debate over whether people\u2019s lives or ideals are more important has led to his proposals being labeled defeatist, but in essence, his arguments were not disputed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It remains an open question whether the sanctions can pay off as many critics believe that pressure has failed to produce any results in four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the pro-democracy groups are struggling to represent the interests of Belarusians, especially against the backdrop of sanctions that make life difficult for ordinary citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new Polish government\u2019s budget cuts and decision to limit Belsat<\/em>\u2019s independence have also cast some doubt on the opposition\u2019s international influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a need for a more flexible approach, and the opposition needs to come up with a clear message for Western politicians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team is perceived depends on whether democracies accept the New Belarus passport as a substitute for the national passport issued or denied by the Belarusian government to many exiled Belarusians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inside Belarus, those who oppose the regime should focus on long-term work, including education and Belarusian language and identity promotion, rather than short-term information battles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard work needed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In principle, however, the importance of any policy paper should not be exaggerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, the mainstream opposition canceled its primaries and discussed boycotting the election. Then, suddenly, new opposition leaders cropped up, such as Valeryj Capka\u0142a, Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski, and Viktar Babaryka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka forced Capka\u0142a into exile and locked up Babaryka, but Cichano\u016dski\u2019s wife managed to build the fervor to sweep her opponent away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, when a new window for change opens, leaders will emerge regardless of declarations by exiled politicians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is difficult to make predictions in the context of war, especially as Belarus is tied to Russia, which has challenged the West. The Kremlin has turned out to be more resourceful than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But history shows that even powerful countries like the Soviet Union can fall apart if they cannot compete economically with the West. When socialist camp countries, including the Baltic states, saw their chance, they took it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opponents just need to work harder for a new historical chance for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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