{"id":196678,"date":"2026-07-21T23:39:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T20:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T23:43:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T20:43:28","slug":"lukasenkas-departure-likely-to-begin-as-managed-handover-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s departure likely to begin as managed handover"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>July 21, <\/strong><strong><em><strong><em>Pozirk<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><strong>. <\/strong>A majority or experts interviewed in a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/newideas.center\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/manitorynh_bielaruskaha_tranzitu_jak_pavalicyc_sancy_na_demakratyzacyju.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><u>survey <\/u><\/a>agreed that a transfer of power in Belarus by 2040 is almost inevitable, and it is likely to begin as a managed top-down process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As many as 29 experts, mostly Belarusian and foreign political analysts, took part in the survey conducted by the Warsaw-based Center for New Ideas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ninety percent of the interviewees described a power transition by 2040 as \u201cpractically inevitable\u201d and and 72 percent called a \u201cmanaged transfer of power from above\u201d as the most probable starting point of the transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors of the study, Ryhor Astapienia, D\u017amitryj Kruk and Anton Radnianko\u016d \u2014 emphasize that a \u201ccontrolled start\u201d does not guarantee control over the entire subsequent process, since even a stage-managed transfer of power may lead to a political crisis and trigger unexpected developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seventy-nine percent of the experts pointed to Alaksandar Luka\u0161enka\u2019s health state of as the main potential trigger of power transition. Thirty-eight percent described \u201cinstability in Russia\u201d as an important factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the study, it is far less likely that Belarus will get a new government as a result of mass protests, an economic crisis and divisions within the ruling elite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The respondents played up the role of Russia for change in Belarus, with 66 percent saying that Moscow will be ready to support any successor who ensures the preservation of Minsk\u2019s geopolitical loyalty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The survey\u2019s authors warn that the West has no strategy for post-Luka\u0161enka Belarus and will find it even harder to exercise influence after his departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Luka\u0161enka has been in power in Belarus since 1994.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July 21, Pozirk. A majority or experts interviewed in a recent survey agreed that a transfer of power in Belarus by 2040 is almost inevitable, and it is likely to begin as a managed top-down process. As many as 29 experts, mostly Belarusian and foreign political analysts, took part in the survey conducted by the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":63993,"template":"","rubric":[16],"class_list":["post-196678","articles","type-articles","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Experts: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s departure likely to begin as managed handover | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"July 21, Pozirk. A majority or experts interviewed in a recent survey agreed that a transfer of power in Belarus by 2040 is almost inevitable, and it is\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Experts: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s departure likely to begin as managed handover | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"July 21, Pozirk. A majority or experts interviewed in a recent survey agreed that a transfer of power in Belarus by 2040 is almost inevitable, and it is\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-21T20:43:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_color_blank_1128x752.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1128\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"752\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/\"},\"headline\":\"Experts: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s departure likely to begin as managed handover\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-21T20:39:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-21T20:43:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/\"},\"wordCount\":277,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_color_blank_1128x752.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/\",\"name\":\"Experts: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s departure likely to begin as managed handover | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/196678\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_color_blank_1128x752.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-21T20:39:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-21T20:43:28+00:00\",\"description\":\"July 21, Pozirk. 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