{"id":143920,"date":"2025-06-24T14:53:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-24T11:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/143920\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"edb-expects-belarus-growth-to-slow-down-to-3-percent-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/143920\/","title":{"rendered":"EDB expects Belarus\u2019 growth to slow down to 3 percent in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

June 24, Pozirk<\/em><\/strong>. Belarus\u2019 economic growth is expected to slow to 3 percent in 2025, down from an average of 4 percent over the past two years, according to a macroeconomic outlook presented by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report highlights a loss of momentum in industrial production, which has been a primary growth driver in recent years. Despite this, retail sales surged by 9.3 percent and investment grew by 14 percent, signaling continued domestic economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, external challenges are weighing on Belarus\u2019 performance. The country is struggling to sell its goods abroad, with exports\u2014particularly of investment goods\u2014declining and inventories rising. The EDB attributes this trend to weakening demand in Russia and heightened competition from both Russian producers and other nations regarded as allies by Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A labor shortage is also constraining growth, the report noted. The unemployment rate remains at a historic low of 2.8 percent, even as job vacancies increase, indicating a tight labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these headwinds, the government may still achieve growth of 3 percent by boosting household consumption through higher wages and expanded access to consumer credit, analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment activity is expected to remain strong, supported by state programs, improved access to financing and a “dynamic recovery” in the IT sector, according to the EDB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead to 2026\u20132027, Belarus is projected to return to a more balanced growth path, averaging 1.7 percent annually. This slower pace reflects anticipated economic deceleration in Russia, the country’s key trading partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to rise\u2014reaching 7.7 percent by the end of 2025 and 8.2 percent in 2026\u20132027\u2014before easing. The EDB cites a weaker Belarusian rubel and continued demand-driven price pressures as contributing factors. As for the rubel it is expected to depreciate to 3.3 to the US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to these inflationary risks, the National Bank of Belarus is likely to face limited room for monetary easing. This was underscored by its recent decision to raise the base refinance rate to 9.75 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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