{"id":114947,"date":"2024-11-21T20:34:32","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T17:34:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/114947\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"economist-plays-down-fears-of-rubel-collapse","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/114947\/","title":{"rendered":"Economist plays down fears of rubel collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

November 21, Pozirk<\/em>.<\/strong> There is no storm in the Belarusian fx market but there are risks, BEROC senior researcher Anatol Charyton\u010dyk has told journalists, commenting on recent reports of rubel depreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian currency hit new lows against the dollar for seven consecutive sessions at the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The dollar does not play a big role in the country today,” the expert stressed. “Export and import payments are mainly made in Russian rubles, and the Belarusian rubel is strengthening against the ruble.” (The rubel rose to 3.7577 per 100 Russian rubles yesterday).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charyton\u010dyk noted that the rubel has not weakened considerably against the central bank\u2019s basket of currencies, which includes the Russian ruble (60 percent), the US dollar (30 percent) and the Chinese yuan (10 percent).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“In general, there was a slight weakening against the basket of currencies, less than 1 percent since the beginning of the year,” the economist said. “Therefore, the Belarusian rubel exchange rate should be considered as balanced.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BEROC analyst attributed the current exchange rate fluctuations to seasonality. “The population pushes up demand in the fx market \u2013 it happens every year in November and December,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he pointed risks associated with the “desynchronization of the monetary policies in Belarus and Russia.” Russia has much higher interest rates than Belarus, which is “fraught with problems in foreign trade,” Charyton\u010dyk said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf demand in Russia goes down sharply in the environment of such a tight monetary policy, while Belarus with its neutral rates continues to maintain a high volume of lending, we will naturally get a foreign trade deficit and pressure on the Belarusian rubel,” the economist said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, he pointed out opportunities for carry trade operations. “You take a loan in Belarusian rubels, exchange it for Russian rubles and deposit the cash in the Russian Federation to make a profit on the difference in interest rates,” he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The bigger this difference is\u2014the Russian Central Bank will raise the [key] rate in December to 23 percent or even higher\u2014the greater the incentives for these operations. Right now, I think they are minimal. However, the threat persists, and it could put pressure on the Belarusian rubel rate.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another risk, according to Charyton\u010dyk, is soft economic policy and overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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