Illegal migration at Belarus-EU border sets 2024 record (corrected)

This article has been corrected to reflect the fact that May was a record month for illegal border crossings in 2024 rather than from the start of the migration crisis in 2021.

May 27, Pozirk. May is not over yet, but it has already become a record month for migrants trying to illegally enter the European Union (EU) from Belarus in 2024, according to a Pozirk analysis of data from border services.

The migration crisis at the border has been ongoing since the spring of 2021.

Over the past 26 days, Poland and Baltic states prevented 6,647 border violations from Belarus, 22.1 percent more than in the same period last month and 60.6 percent more than in the same period in May 2023.

Breakdown by country: Poland, 6,146 cases; Latvia, 467 cases; Lithuania, 34 cases.

The previous record was set in April 2024, when these countries’ border services registered 6,327 attempts.

At least 198 attempts were foiled on May 26 alone: 189 by Polish border guards and nine by Latvian border guards. The Lithuanian Polish Border Guard did not report any incidents.

Since the beginning of the year, the EU has prevented 17,766 intrusions, an increase of 18.9 percent over the same period in 2023.

The migration crisis at the Belarusian-EU border started in spring 2021 after Alaksandar Łukašenka, angered by EU sanctions, had indicated that Minsk would not prevent migrants from Africa and Asia from using Belarus as a route to the EU. It escalated in November 2021, with hundreds of migrants storming the Polish border.

In June 2021, the Belarusian government announced the suspension of a readmission agreement with the EU in response to sanctions that followed the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk.

Pozirk’s analysis of daily stats indicated fluctuated tension at the Belarusian-EU border throughout 2023 with illegal border crossings picking up the pace in February.

The Baltic states and Poland accused Belarusian authorities of creating the trouble, while the latter blamed it on the West.

In August 2023, the interior ministers of Poland and the Baltic States warned that they would close the border with Belarus in response to a surge in illegal migration.