September 22, Pozirk. The Community of Railway Workers of Belarus (CRW), an opposition resistance group with insiders in Belarusian Railway (BR), has reported that Poland’s border closure has severely affected not only the railway but also Biełaruskalij, a major fertilizer exporter and a key source of revenue for the Belarusian government.
“While Belarusian Railway’s lost revenue can be estimated in tens of millions of dollars, the consequences for Biełaruskalij are even more strategic—a reduction in container traffic deprives the company of one of its few remaining routes to China,” the CRW said.
Biełaruskalij has become increasingly reliant on Russian infrastructure, facing higher costs and growing vulnerability to port congestion and changes in Russian tariff policy. The Belarusian potash giant is also encountering rising logistics expenses, the CRW noted.
The main impact of the border closure for both Belarusian Railway and Biełaruskalij, however, is the disruption of a stable flow of empty containers from Europe after unloading.
“This creates a shortage of containers for export shipments and forces Biełaruskalij to either seek pricier containers on the Russian market or reduce shipments,” the group explained.
The tensions at the border could also result in the loss of some transit contracts for BR, which might be redirected to Russia or Turkey, it added.
BR faces these economic challenges while struggling to repay “significant debts.” “For three weeks now, the company has operated in what is effectively an austerity mode due to the forced downtime of diesel locomotives caused by a shortage of diesel fuel. The Biełnaftachim group suspended fuel deliveries because of BR’s debts,” the report states.
“Assuming BR receives only 10–15 percent of transit and infrastructure tariff revenue, the lost income from suspended freight operations alone could reach $40–50 million by the end of September 2025, depending on the number of delayed trains,” the CRW added.
For Chinese exporters, China-Europe freight services “have been reduced but have not stopped entirely. Schedules have been cut, and some trains are operating with fewer wagons.”
Poland closed the border with Belarus, including railway crossings, on September 12 in connection with the Belarusian-Russian military exercise Zapad-2025, which ran from September 12 to 16. The border will remain closed until further notice due to concerns over the safety of Polish citizens, the Polish interior ministry stated after the drill ended.
Warsaw has emphasized that it does not benefit economically from the border closure but is prioritizing security over trade, Polish foreign ministry spokesman Paweł Wroński said following talks with Chinese officials three days after the closure.
Relations between Minsk and Warsaw, already strained by Belarus’ refusal to release journalist and Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut from prison and irregular migration, have worsened this month following the arrest of Polish national Grzegorz Gaweł in Lepel, Viciebsk region, the expulsion of a Belarusian diplomat from Poland, and heightened tensions between Poland and Russia after an unprecedented incursion of military drones into Polish territory.
On September 17, Politico reported that the border closure affects the trade route carrying 90 percent of rail freight between China and the EU.
Earlier today, Alaksandar Łukašenka condemned Poland’s closure of its border with Belarus as an unfriendly act toward China during a meeting with Li Xi, a high-ranking member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.
“I realize that this is most likely an unfriendly move by the Poles—a political act against the People’s Republic of China or perhaps a move designed to boost their image, as the Poles believe,” his press office quoted him as saying. “But it is by no means an economic move, because an empire like China will easily cope with this problem.”
“Poland is acting like a show horse for the benefit of other countries,” Łukašenka added.
